282 replies to this topic

[Kamau]

If the game were decided next week and Kass was up for the win, there's absolutely no way she would get it. But it really will depend on (a) if she even makes it that far, (b) who's sitting beside her, and © if other people screw up big time. I still don't think there's any way Morgan would give her the vote. Sarah's vote would depend on who else is in the jury (i.e., if Tony proves he went against her/lied to her about his word, etc, and she had to pick between him and Kass...Kass would have a slim chance of getting the vote). And the rest of the jury would have to decide based on things to come. 

 

Kass did have a point when she said anything could happen, because in Survivor, that's exactly what goes down. Make one stupid move and it might cost you the game. 

 

Obviously I can't guarantee anything but I will say that it's been Final 3 for, like, the past dozen seasons practically. Multiple years at the least, because Final 2 sucked. AKA Whoever won the final immunity challenge just brought along the person they knew they could beat. At least with final 3 it became a bit tougher because there were usually at least two people who kind of deserved it.

 

Only one season did we actually have three strong people in the end. I can't remember who it was, and for all I know I'm making this up, but there was one season I can recall where they made a pact to go strong to the end and then actually did it. And it was glorious. If it existed.

[Glaciermage]

Amazing Race

Spoiler

I was really afraid the whole leg was going to come down to the deplaning. That would've sucked. Especially since all our fave teams were behind at that point.

Both detours looked like a lot of fun. I can't believe John used his shield that many times. Don't use your shield! He was telling that to Jess and then he would say "I used my shield" and run back. Classic John!

I'm really glad the leg ended up the way it did. Jess and John were my least favorite. Brenchel is dropping in my favorites list. I have a hard time rooting for her.

I'm so surprised the Afghanimals are still in it after switching like they did. Lets just hope the cowboys, Dave and Connor and the globe trotters keep performing well.

[Kamau]

Spoiler

So I had paragraphs here but MP decided I wanted to go back several pages instead of several letters and I have zero desire to retype my feelings of literally the entire episode. 

• I thought it was interesting that Dave and Connor let the Blondes step on the mat in front of them. They must have been really confident that they weren't in last.
• Roman numerals suck. I would have been there for-ever. 
• I love how the Blondes were so confident that they were out that they took their time and had fun, and then they came in second. Just goes to show you, the race isn't over until Phil tells you you're out.
• It's always amusing when teams fail at reading the clue.
• I can't believe they're just giving the answer to the last two teams. It's hilarious that they all think the Blondes haven't made it yet. Let the race to the pit stop begin; for someone, they're about to be extremely disappointed. 
• "Turn around and get these guys running." He knows one of them is out. This is glorious. ANd yessssss Flight Time/Big Easy! Look at their faces at how they just barely escaped elimination. I'm so glad.

Mom says it sucks because Flight Time/Big Easy wouldn't have understood the challenge at all if not for the Afghanimals. Which is true. But at the same time, I like them better than John/Jessica so I'm glad they're still in. I do agree that it sucks that they were just given the answer, but at least both teams were given it; it would have sucked 10x more if John/Jessica had stayed in just because they were given the answer and Flight Time/Big Easy weren't.

[Glaciermage]

Thank you for re-typing what you did.

 

Spoiler

I have a feeling John would have been there a long time too. When he said he was doing the challenge I got excited because I know he has a habit of messing things up. Did you see how he was hopping from stair to stair without a care in the world? You are right, Flight Time would've had a much easier time of it if he had just read the clue properly.

[Kamau]

Survivor!

Spoiler

"You should have come to us."

"It’s a two-way street, Tony. You could have come to us.”

"Yeah, see, the difference is, we’ve got the numbers. We don’t need your votes.”

 

Tony, you’re an ass. Go the hell home. I don’t care how strategic you are. You play with peoples’ emotions, twist their words, and then whine when people put your name down because “I’m a 40-year old bald dude, I’m not strong, why are they voting for me?” Quit whining because your game isn’t as ‘hidden’ as you think it is.

 

This reward challenge is a lot easier than I was expecting it to be. I’m sad that Tony won but happy for Spencer, so I’m torn, but at least Tony won’t be able to play his game back at camp, and LJ gets to talk to everyone first. As long as Spencer doesn’t fall for Tony’s BS I’ll be content.

 

I’m really hoping people decide to go after Tony because of his paranoia.

 

“When the time comes, I’ll definitely approach you guys.” Spencer said it himself, they’re basically pawns in the game. They know they don’t have the numbers. But ugh, Tony’s ego. I hate it so much.

 

It’s funny because Tony is all “it’ll all come down to which of us throws the first punch” when it’s not a strength challenge it’s memory.

 

I’d get the first round. I wonder if you could put the whole stack in your hands, rather than this one-by-one business. It’s the one at a time part with gaps in between that would mess me up. (Aw man and of course, Tony is still in this challenge. And LJ. Come on anyone who isn’t Tony!) Alright, here we go. Someone’s about to win this challenge. Yeaaah Tasha! Though that’s gonna screw with Tony’s “grand plan” because unless he decides to go after his alliance, he has to break his ‘word’ to Spencer and Jeremiah.

 

Why is no one looking for the other “special” idol, anyway? I mean there’s been no hint that it’s actually on the island but still. I’d certainly be looking.

 

“LJ already said he’d be willing to blindside Woo. Yeah, I walked him into it, but-“ No, Tony. No buts. And of course, LJ, Trish, and Jefra didn’t talk to Woo – the subject of the potential worry – and now Woo’s getting all up in arms. People are so stupid sometimes.

 

C’mon, Trish, don’t listen to Tony. You’ve got two conflicting stories now. “I’m gullible but I’m not stupid” – except…ugh. Come ON. All I want is for Tony to go home.

 

What…on earth is that outfit Morgan’s wearing?

 

Tony’s got his “bag of tricks” with him? Jeff said it perfectly, ‘why bother bringing it if you’re feeling confident?’ He’s seriously screwing himself over by getting paranoid about members of “the six”.

 

“Tony, what do you do?” “Construction.” Mom and I are having a debate here now, didn’t Tony confess to everyone that he’s a police officer? At least, everyone from ‘the six’?

 

I’m glad to see “the six” broken up because Tony seriously just sealed his own grave and this pleases me. But I’m sad that LJ went home because of it. Here’s to hoping everyone turns on Tony next ep. Mom says it’s a good thing that LJ went home because if everyone had turned on Tony this time, Spencer and Jeremiah would have been the next to go. And she has a point, so fine, but I really am sick of Tony.

 

…Aaand we’re back to disagreement. She thinks Tony’s got to stick around in order for Spencer/Jeremiah to stay in the game; I say they don’t need him next week because his own alliance will now be scrambling. LJ is gone – that leaves Trish, Jefra, Tony, Woo, and Kass. Woo and Tony “flipped”, so the other three (hopefully) won’t trust them anymore. But between the two of them, Woo is the more “forgiveable” offence, so my hope is that the alliance will decide to take out the biggest risk among them. But from there, that leaves them with four, and they might decide that Woo isn’t a good one to keep around either – thus moving in to get back with Spencer and co. Especially if it becomes apparent that he’s got an idol.

[Glaciermage]

Spoiler

I've decided that I just want Spencer to win. Because my thoughts on everyone else change based on how it affects Spencer's chances.

I was so happy Tony was talking to Spencer and although I'm sad LJ left, I'm really happy Spencer has a lot of options now. He also is not a primary threat, so the longer Tony stays around, the easier it will be for Spencer. Plus Spencer has an idol, so he is sitting pretty.

I do still like Woo a lot. He must be great socially behind the scenes because he is a legitimate threat, and yet he always manages to be in on every major alliance and is never being targeted. He will need to engineer a big move soon though if he is gonna win.

LJ kind of deserved his fate. He got too comfortable with Tony. He was suspicious of Tony before the immunity idols and he should've stayed suspicious.

I like what Kass said about checking your personal life at the door and the balance between the player and the person. I respect Kass and Tony for both being fantastic players. But at the same time I don't want either of them to win. I want Spencer or Woo to win because they are good players while at the same time still being good people.

I think the girls are definitely done with Tony. Btw, tony told the "top 5" he was a cop, but he also told them he was keeping that from everyone else. Anyways, I think next episode comes down to who Woo is going to ally with.

Another great episode IMO.

[Kamau]

Spoiler

Yeah, I get what you mean about not wanting Kass or Tony to win over someone who's played a good game while remaining a good person. That's pretty much the way I see it, too; I can certainly respect the moves they've made to stay in the game and better their chances, but that doesn't mean I respect the choices themselves.

[legacyme3]

Spoiler

Man, what an episode. It went better than expected.

 

Love Tony getting paranoid to start the episode. It's going to cause a crack in the "six", I just know it. This is going to be huge for Spencer to take advantage of.

 

Also love how Tony approaches LJ to get rid of Woo, it's not going to happen, but it makes for good TV. Wonder if he's going to go back on that path, and trick people into voting for LJ instead. Wouldn't surprise me with how Tony plays.

 

This reward challenge looks a little silly. Why even split up teams if you aren't going to do it evenly? One team has 2 girls, and one team has three guys who are very good at challenges. Split up the power a little, n'eh? Unsurprisingly, they win, and get the spa treatment.

 

I'm very glad it was Spencer and Jeremiah who got to go with Tony, because this gives Spencer and Jeremiah a chance to connect with Tony, who I think is crucial for their life in this game.

 

Back at camp, and LJ spills the beans to a lot of people about Tony's paranoia with Woo... could make for an interesting tribal if someone outside of the six wins immunity.

 

Holy crap, this immunity challenge is easy. This is literal grade school stuff. Memorization isn't just about taking a list and trying to remember it, it's coming up with tricks to help you remember patterns. This could be a long challenge.

 

And Trish is gone before I can even finish typing the above sentence. How the hell can you suck that badly at remembering a short sequence of colors?

 

I was sitting with my grandmother watching the challenge, and even "she" got past the first round of colors. I was able to memorize all of the colors in both rounds (although I have a major advantage, not being "fatigued" from life on the island, as well as not being under pressure, which can affect one's performance). Really simple challenge.

 

Happy Tasha won. I don't really like her, but I wanted someone outside of the six to win this one.

 

So, who is it going to be? Spencer and Jeremiah, logically, would be the ones to go, because they are outside the six and strong at challenges... so what are we going to do? Split the votes so at least one of them goes home. Because there's no way anyone will flip. No way at all. Especially not the PARANOID GUY IN OUR TRIBE.

 

OK, so this is good, means that there's a chance.

 

Tony, Woo, and LJ could all potentially be at risk. The only people who won't get any votes for sure tonight are Kass, Trish, and Tasha (the last one for having immunity and the former two for not really doing anything. On that note, I was very glad to hear Kass didn't say much this episode)

 

Tony is flipping, oh my god, this is perfect.

 

Woo is flipping too, that's definitely helpful.

 

And oh my god, Tony shut up about your bag of tricks. I want you to last until the Final Three, because you are entertaining. Talking openly about how awesome you are is more likely to get you voted out next episode, which is my not so bold prediction.

 

Love the reactions of the jury to everything said tonight. Puts into perspective just who "really" holds the power in this game.

 

Ok, so we've got 3 votes LJ, 3 votes Jeremiah, a vote for Spencer, and then 2 votes for LJ.

 

I'd say #blindside, but I honestly saw this coming from the beginning of the episode, once it became clear how Tony was going to "attack" Woo. By not attacking him at all.

 

I can't even be upset about LJ going. I liked him, but it was either him or Jeremiah/Spencer, and I like Jeremiah and Spencer (mostly Spencer) more.

 

The six has become 5.

 

Next episode previews... holy crap Woo, I hope you will be alright. I have this awful feeling now. Tony looks like his paranoia is going to get the better of him. Really hoping someone finds that hidden immunity idol with super powers.

 

My own thought as to how next week will go down, is that it's going to come down to these three bullet points.

 

1. Does Tony permanently flip to Spencer/Jeremiah/Tasha? As has been seen in this episode, and the previews for next, everyone in his tribe thinks he's getting paranoid (which he is). Paranoia leads to people flipping, as we saw, last night. This could open the door to Spencer and co. adding Tony as the "bottom rung" of their alliance, to spare him from being voted out by his own "five". If he flips, it's four v. four.

 

2. What does Woo do? The entire reason he voted for LJ is because he believed Tony on LJ trying to get rid of him. Now that he sees not one vote was cast for him, how is he going to react to Tony? He said in the last episode that "Tony is my closest ally" (unless I'm mistaken?). Would he flip and betray his "closest ally", or stick with him, as he's in too deep now. If Tony flips to Spencer/etc does Woo as well? If Tony doesn't flip, does Woo flip over there to get rid of Tony and escape a potential sinking ship? Woo is almost certainly the most important piece in the puzzle at this point in time.

 

3. What will Kass do? As much as I loathe her, Kass is also an important piece next week. She's not "connected" to the "five" as much as the other pieces, and she's still the bottom rung (unless Tony suddenly becomes it). As with Woo, she may decide that the ship is sinking, and try to save her own ass. She could certainly flip, but at this point, it's too little too late, probably, no matter what she does, I feel like she's screwed in the long run. She does have an important swing vote next week though, especially if it comes down to Tony/?? facing elimination.

 

I'm really looking forward to next week though. And oh god I hope Woo will be alright.

[Kamau]

Since we've all seen it now.

 

I don't know how feasible it is, but I want to see Kass, Trish, and Jefra ally up within "the five". From there I'd be even more pleased to see them pull Spencer and Jeremiah in (the chances of this would increase if Spencer shows that he has an idol, though I don't want him to do this).

 

I'm glad you like Tony for entertainment value, but I really don't want him around any longer than possible. Mom thinks he'll stick around for a long while but I'm hoping people realize that once you start getting paranoid, your use in any alliance becomes next to nil.

[legacyme3]

Yuck. I don't want to see Spencer and Jeremiah ally with Kass any more this game. Kass is just as bad as Tony has been. She's just been way quieter about it, and I don't want to see two cool people get roped in and help propel Kass to a point later in the game. As poorly as you feel about Tony, I feel that way about Kass.

 

The key difference is that Tony has been entertaining. He's making a complete idiot or ass of himself on a weekly basis, and it provides people with a common enemy, a vested rooting disinterest, someone who will boost the ratings because people want to see him fall at this point. He's hilarious, and his paranoia is only amplifying it. He could go as soon as next week, but I want to see him last to about the Final Five. (though if he lasts that long, he might make it to the Final Three, simply because other people think he won't get votes).

 

With Kass, she's just annoying. She may be playing the game well, but she's in a worse position than Tony (I feel) is, has stabbed the only people who I personally feel I'd be able to trust for any length of time in the back, and though irrelevant to most, her voice just pisses me off. I'm not sure who she reminds me of in real life, but I do know that I don't like that person. So it could just be me being as petty as pretty much everyone on the show has been this season.

[Glaciermage]

It will definitely be interesting to see what happens. I like Tony for the reasons Leggy said, and I like Kass for the reasons Kamau said. They both have made very smart, very "unfriendly" moves, but they are playing the game well. Tony's move to oust LJ has put Kass in a bad position, but she still has a chance to climb out of it.

 

It will be interesting to see where Spencer goes from this point. He obviously has Jeremiah and Tasha on his side still. Does he trust Kass or Tony more? Would you trust Kass or Tony more? Kass has personally flipped on him, but Tony has shown he is capable of screwing over anyone. This is the first week where a ton of different options could happen and i'm really excited to see what actually takes place.

[Kamau]

Amazing Race!

 

Spoiler

So I thought I'd be more upset with the amount of assistance going on in this race, but I enjoyed all of what went on this episode. I think I liked it because everyone was paying it back/forward as best they could. Dave/Conner got stuck and lost the Blondes, so they helped them finish a challenge later. They were stuck U-turning someone so they helped the Afghanimals finish the challenge to prove no hard feelings. The Afghanimals made sure to wait and make it a fair race to the finish. I enjoyed all of it.

 

I do think it sucks that Brenchel U-turned Dave/Conner. The smallest part of me gets why they did it, but they really made themselves a lot of enemies. That said, I'm really glad that Dave/Conner U-turned the Afghanimals and not the Cowboys because in the moments leading up to the U-turn I was explaining to mom why it would be a terrible idea to pick the Cowboys and not another team (since U-turning the Cowboys would mean the Cowboys could still beat them, whereas any other team would almost guarantee them more of a head start). 

 

I'm a little sad that Flight Time/Big Easy got eliminated, but at the same time, there was no way Brenchel was getting out this ep and everyone else, I like to varying degrees. I'd like to see Brenchel go, and the Blondes because as much as I enjoy their friendship with Dave/Conner they still haven't done much without support that I can remember.

 

I think this is my new lineup:

1st - the Cowboys

2nd - Dave/Conner

3rd - the Afghanimals

4th - Brenchel

5th - the Blondes

 

I only put Brenchel above the Blondes because Brendan and Rachel have run a stronger race.

[Glaciermage]

Spoiler

I would definitely put Brenchel last. Their decision to UTurn may have won them the leg, but lost them the race. I never really liked them anyway.

I think all the helping was a bit out of hand, but as you said, there were reasons behind it all so I guess it wasn't terrible.

There were really tough challenges this time around. I would have never been able to do the calligraphy, and no model for the donkey cart? They are throwing everything at these all stars.

I was sad to see the GlobeTrotters go but outside of Brenchel I will be a little sad to see all the teams go at this point. Well, I probably won't be sad when the country singers go either.

[Kamau]

Survivor

 

Spoiler

To start it off...of course Tony finds the idol. Of course it's the Special Idol that allows you to play it after the votes are read (the stupidest thing I have ever seen entered into the game. It’s a get out of jail free card and it completely destroys the element of strategy. And what the hell is up with the extra rule, ‘the person who finds it is the only one who can use it’?)

 

That said, a lot of interesting things went down this episode. I'm intrigued and actually kind of respect the fact that Tony's alliance doesn't fault him for his move, though it sucks because Jefra went from doubting Tony to being drawn back in - which, okay, fine, she saved herself for a bit longer, but...whatever.

 

Guys I can't even talk about this right now. I'm just so pissed that Tony found that freaking idol and is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the final 3 right now.

 

I can't even describe my emotions right now. I legitimately stood up and walked out of the room in disgust when Tony found it.

 

EDIT: Okay. I can push past my disgust enough to roll my eyes at how convenient the "random" teams were - seriously? Tony, Trish, Woo, and Kass (conveniently everyone who Tony trusts) vs. Spencer, Jeremiah, Tash, and Jefra (conveniently the 'other' alliance and the one person who might flip?)

 

EDIT 2: Okayokay. I'm trying hard because there are actually things I wanted to point out I just can't get past this freaking idol. I wanted to mention how hard I laughed when Kass said to Jefra, "You can't vote out people because they annoy you. That's just setting yourself up for disaster."

 

[Glaciermage]

Spoiler

You were right, Kamau. They should have gotten rid of Tony when they had the chance. I also hate the special power his idol has. When he found that idol I thought he was guaranteed top 3 also. But all idols must be used by top 4 round, don't they? Who in their right mind would ally with him to go to top 3? I think our chance of getting rid of him is hoping he doesn't win immunity when there are 4 left.

I'm not surprised Jefra backed out of the Tony blindside or that things went the way they did. The one thing that surprised me was that Spencer didn't either play his idol for Jeremiah, or not play it at all. Obviously we see more of the other players than he does, but he had to figure they were suspicious he was the one with the idol.

I don't understand Tony showing his "fake" idol. How would thay convince Spencer to play the idol for himself? Maybe he felt they were voting for him again. Tony has been way off on reading people at tribal, and if it wasn't for Kass he would be long gone already.

I want to see Spencer stay in the game in the worst way. I'm really hoping he doesn't put his trust in Tony in an effort to do that.

[Kamau]

Spoiler

It doesn't matter that he has to use it by final 4; even if he waits until then, he's still guaranteed final 3 unless they go after him two tribals in a row. I say this because if he makes it to that point, he probably won't have a problem swaying two of the remaining three to vote with him. After all, providing he sticks with his alliance (which is more and more likely unless (a) Spencer/Tash continue winning immunity or (b) someone else in the alliance does something really stupid) they all trust him. Trish would stick with him. Woo would probably stick with him. Kass would probably throw him under the bus except she said it herself, "I want to keep the annoying people around." So she'd only turn on him if it became apparent that his annoying traits don't outweigh his ability to play the game. It'll be a matter of who's still around but I really don't see people not taking him once he makes it to that point unless they finally get common sense and realize that at this rate, he'll win. And more importantly, out of everyone in his alliance, I feel like it'd be him vs. Woo for immunity. 

 

I honestly feel that the only way he won't make it would be if everyone voted for him two tribals in a row.But I really, really hope I'm wrong.

 

Mom thinks Spencer was debating whether to play the idol for Jeremiah or for himself. I agree with her, and I also agree with her wish that he'd played it for Jeremiah. I guess he figured they'd be going for him since no one knew he had the idol (after all, he was the one who 'confessed his big secret' in the water with his alliance).

 

Speaking of, it was a little amusing how Tony pulled his idol out of his "bag of tricks" and tried to say that Spencer's wasn't real, and then was like "hey look, mine's fake". It'll be interesting to see if anyone asks him more about it next week. I don't think he was trying to get Spencer to play it for himself or not, I think he was trying to make Spencer doubt that he had it, at least for a second. Though I really think that most of all, it was a moment of not-thinking for Tony.

 

Honestly? Spencer's probably going to have to get in with Tony to stick around at this point. He'd have to convince more than half of the "final five" to turn on someone in their alliance, and the only way that'll happen will be if someone messes up bad. The only chance he might have is if they all agree to go after Tony next week, but then Tony will play his idol and then what? Someone else will go home (probably Spencer unless he wins immunity) and he'll be back to square one. But I really want him to win so here's hoping.

 

Moment of optimism: Maybe they'll go after Tony next week, flush his idol, and then Tony's paranoia will convince people to still go after him.

[Glaciermage]

Spoiler

Tony said to Jeff after Spencer played his idol that he thought Spencer was gonna play his idol on "Jeremy", but by flashing his idol he made Spencer play it for himself. Tony lives in a dream world at tribal. At that point I knew they had all voted for Jeremiah. That was the smarter person to cover with the idol, but if you are gonna be wrong, better to cover yourself with immunity.

I'm not sure who would take Tony to final 3 at this point. Especially after what Spencer said. He said that if Tony makes it to final 3 he is voting for him, and Tasha and Jeremiah both agreed. It makes sense, and everyone in Tonys alliance should realize that he is the most dangerous person in the alliance. I wouldn't want to go to final 3 with him after his 2 "secret agent" blindsides so far.

That's what I didn't get about kass's comment. She said keep the annoying people and get rid of the dangerous. Maybe she means he isn't dangerous when it comes to challenges. I guess if the 3 girls feel close they feel like once Spencer and Tasha are out they can vote out Tony.

One last comment: Did you hear Trish say that the papayas were as big as Morgan's boobs? Haha!

[Kamau]

Spoiler

I did, indeed, hear that comment. And I laughed. XD It was a bright moment in the midst of a sucky episode.

 

I'm hoping you're right and that everyone will realize taking Tony along is stupid, but I worry that they'll stick together and get rid of Spencer and Tash before they come to their senses. I'm really hoping Spencer or Tash win immunity next week, and with luck the idol will be released back into the wild (especially with Tony's stupid idol still in play) and maybe Spencer will find it again. I can hope. If that's the case, they can potentially flush Tony's idol?

 

Actually, that would be the coolest. If, say, Tash won immunity, Spencer found and played an idol, and Spencer and Tash voted for Tony and everyone else voted for Spencer. Then Tony would get to play his idol and get it out of the picture, and they'd have to...revote? And scramble and be forced to get rid of someone. (In the event of a revote, do you think votes against Tony still wouldn't count? haha)

 

I can dream!

[legacyme3]

Since we've all seen it.

 

Honestly, I'm not as mad at Tony or even Spencer as I should be. Yes, Tony found the stupid idol that's going to break the game and almost assuredly get him into the Final Three (and honestly, unless Spencer is in the Final Three with him, Tony is probably this season's winner. It's hard not to give the win to the player doing something on that tribe, even if he's mostly being an idiot.) unless a big move happens shortly.

 

No, I'm mad at Tasha for winning Immunity, as stupid as it sounds.

 

Had Tasha stepped down, and let Spencer win, I think Spencer still tells Jeremiah and Tasha about his idol, and offers to share it with Jeremiah at tribal, covering both of their asses. Tasha wouldn't likely draw votes, I don't think she's had basically any votes since the beginning of the game. At least none that I remember.

 

Instead, Tasha wins, opening up a coin flip of who to use the idol on. Unfortunately, Spencer guessed wrong.

 

I think next week, the players WILL ask Tony what's up with his idol. He insists it is fake, but if it was fake, he would have either given it to Jeff or thrown it in the fire, or something to discard it. Instead he sticks it back in his bag. You have to question it, because what's the point of keeping a fake idol? It takes up bag space for no good reason.

 

As of this moment, I think your final three is going to consist of Tony, and two members of his tribe (Probably Jefra and Kass, knowing my luck). If that happens, Tony wins, because neither of the other two have really played the game all that well. One can make an argument for Kass, but in this scenario, Tony basically has three automatic votes from Spencer, Jeremiah, and Tasha.

 

Only way Spencer can make it to the Final Three is if he either gets in with Tony, as has been said (though I think this is INCREDIBLY unlikely with how Spencer talked to Tony at Tribal) or if he wins every challenge from here on out (also INCREDIBLY unlikely, though more likely than the other option I think, unless Tony is a total idiot.)

 

There's not much to say. It's basically 5 on 2 at this point, and without immunity, and with Tony having that stupid ass idol, there's almost no way for BOTH of the two to make it to Final Three.

 

I hate to say it, and honestly, I could be wrong, since I haven't seen Survivor in forever, but it's feeling like Tony is the winner of this season. He's made a lot of dumb moves, but he's still there, and people keep underestimating him somehow.

 

It's logical, get rid of Tony. He's your biggest threat, even though he'll never win immunity. (watch him win immunity next week) He'll stab you in the back and he's likely to get a lot of votes if he makes it to the Final Three. There is legitimately zero reason to keep him around at this point.

 

I didn't see the previews for next week's episode, if someone wants to give me a general idea, but if I had to make a guess as to what happens next week, if Spencer doesn't win immunity, he's gone. Unfortunately.

[Kamau]

Honestly, I don't even remember the previews for next week, so I don't think there was much exciting to them. I hate to, but I do agree with your assessment that it's highly unlikely Spencer will make it to Final 3, and almost guaranteed that Tony will. Though I don't think Spencer would make it to final 3 even if he did get in with Tony, if only because Tony's not stupid - at least, not when it comes to determining who to bring with him to the finals. 

 

I'm still hoping Spencer finds the idol if it's put back into play, and from there can make at least one big move. As for Tasha stepping down, if it had been discussed openly I may have been inclined to agree with your irritation. But from the look of it, it was just a matter of Spencer slipping shortly after the round began.

 

Final 3 will depend on who wins immunity, but I think if Tony could pick he'd bring along Jefra (who may not have angered anyone, but did nothing in-game) and...Trish, if he sticks with his alliance (because Kass made at least one big move, whereas Trish did nothing). There's a chance he'd pick Kass over Trish because of her number of enemies but that would guarantee Trish not give him her vote when the time came. Plus, Kass would be more likely to give Tony her vote since she knows how it feels to make strategic blindsides in order to play the game to the fullest.

 

There's always a chance that Tony won't win, but I get the feeling that when_/if he makes it to Final 3, he'll be pretty much guaranteed the win unless he screws up big with relationships in between now and then.