282 replies to this topic

[Glaciermage]

Does anyone else get excited when the Amazing Race promo comes on during Survivor?
 
Spoiler because I just like Spoilers:
 

Spoiler

 
Kamau is right. It was so weak that Lindsay left, but not as weak as Colton. Lindsay probably left only because she felt she had no shot. But if she made it to the merge she could've had a chance.
 
I don't think Woo needs the Brain tribe at all. I think he is the swing vote in the "Top 5". I think LJ and Jefra are together, and Tony and... Boston lady. Sorry, I forget her name. I think both of them may try to recruit Woo. Tony doesn't trust LJ, and LJ doesn't trust Tony.
 
As well as Tony has played the game thus far, and the Jeremiah clue was a brilliant move, I think he made a bunch of mistakes in this episode. I think he is starting to let his guard down and trust people, and that is going to get him in trouble. I think with the clue move and with the Top 5 comment he made enemies out of the entire other tribe, even Sarah. He could've fooled Sarah until the end without saying that. Also, I agree with LJ totally. All of his comments about lying before and now being truthful only make him harder to trust. I think he will actually be a target very soon, and will have to at the very least use his immunity idol.
 
Currently I am rooting for Woo, LJ, the Brain tribe, and actually I have softened toward Morgan. I didn't like her at all at first, but now I think she is finally playing smart. I'm VERY happy Alexis left because she definitely would've flipped. She was really close with Jefra, (I hope that's her name) and she would've turned on Brain Tribe in an instant. I actually think Morgan told the Brain Tribe this. How close Alexis and Jefra were, and this helped them decide correctly. She even set aside her personal grudge toward Jeremiah to do the right thing.
 
The one thing that scares me is that Tony could still control Sarah. He could always go back to her and just say he is fooling the "Top 5" and it is still Cops R Us. I think he could use her to destroy the other alliance. Should be an interesting episode to see who actually has the power after the merge.
 

[legacyme3]

You have a point there Glace, when it comes to Woo/Top 5 group, but I still think he's more likely to flip to the Brain tribe here. Here's my thought process on that:

 

There may be 5 people in the tribe, but Woo knows he's almost certainly the next one gone of that group, because the two people he aligned himself with, Cliff and Lindsey, are gone. This makes him the "weak" link in the alliance.

 

Tony is a smart person. He's going to know that Woo knows this, and thus try to keep him close. Woo will know through this that he's a very important swing vote to them, and nothing more, and look for more trustworthy allies to get him to that "Top 5". Also consider, that Woo went to the other tribe's camp with Tony, and saw first hand what kind of player he is. Granted, Tony told everyone back at camp about the move, but it's one thing to hear about it, and another to actually witness it. He has to know at this point that Tony does not have his interests at heart, and that he is likely to cut him loose at the first chance he gets to make it "Top 4".

 

Another aspect to keep in mind is Sarah. Now, Sarah knows that Tony has cut her out of the "Top 5" but Woo doesn't know this. Anyone who was a part of the original Brawn tribe should know that Sarah and Tony spent a lot of time together, and seem to share an obvious connection. When the tribes merge, you know Sarah is going to confront Tony about it, and that Tony is going to be ok with that. Woo is going to see this and not know what to think. "Is he re-connecting with the final member of the 'top 5'?" "Is he just going to betray her at the first chance he gets?" "What about me, is he planning with her to get rid of me?"

 

He may end up trusting Tony anyways, which would be a little silly I think, but most people I think in Woo's situation would look for more helpful allies, or try to play two sides. We haven't seen much of a deceptive side out of Woo yet, but I get the feeling there's something there. Which is what makes the merge so exciting, now that everyone is in it for themselves, and don't need to have the same support they did before, the game is blown open and we see more incredulous things. (This part of the show is what made me like Survivor several years ago.)

 

I think Woo, regardless of his final alignment is going to be the person to watch next week, as he's probably the most important swing vote in this game to this point, along with Sarah. 

 

The original Brain tribe needs Woo and Sarah, and I think both of those people need the Brain tribe. The beauty tribe is going to be decimated, and don't have any "real" alliances right now, and the Brawn tribe seems a little transparent.

 

I guess the point is, anything could happen next week, when the tribes merge, it's my favorite part of the show, and that no matter what happens, it is sure to make for good TV.

 

Also, to answer your question, no, I don't get excited when the Amazing Race promo comes on during Survivor, I don't really like the Amazing Race personally. haha

[Glaciermage]

Amazing Race:

Spoiler

Everyone was so close this entire leg. I think Brenchel should've been penalized more for their big mistake. I don't get what she was thinking. She saw other racers filling up green taxis, didn't she?

I also would've been fine with the country singers getting eliminated. I knew when he said it's a good place to end the race, that wasn't going to happen though. It kind of sucks when all the teams you are rooting for make it safely, and then it's a non elimination leg.

I'm a bit concerned about Dave and Connor. I think Dave may slow them down too much one leg. Also, I totally forgot the Cowboys still have their express pass. That makes me feel a little better about their chances. Hopefully they can hang onto it until at least the U turns.

[Kamau]

(Just to mention, I won't be watching TAR until probably Tuesday evening.)

[Glaciermage]

U watch race yet?

SURVIVOR!

Spoiler

I've only been watching 1 1/2 seasons, but this was by far my fave episode. 2 idols played and a blindside? Wow.

I think Tony has definitely lost his edge since he started liking people. To play his idol on LJ as a guess? I see his line of thinking. He thought LJ and him were the 2 targets. Showing the idol would make them vote LJ. But he was wrong!

Trish is actually a really sneakingly good player. She saved that whole alliance and she orchestrated Cliff's removal too. I would say she has actually been the most influential player to this point.

I'm happy Woo got immunity and I'm happy Sarah went. She couldn't have played this episode any worse. She had to figure she was 6th on either alliance. Ordering people around would have sealed her fate very quickly.

And then we come to chaos Kass. I like Kass more and more. I think she is an incredibly good player. I think she made a fatal error though. As soon as the other group said they were voting Sarah, she should have stayed with brain tribe alliance. Because then worse case scenario is someone plays an idol and Sarah goes home, who she wanted to in the first place. I understand she thinks Tasha was against her, but what angle does she have now? She has proven herself untrustworthy. It will be very interesting to see if she can form a core alliance now instead of just being #6 in her current one.

I can't wait for next week!

[Kamau]

No...and I also didn't get to watch Survivor tonight because I worked late. ): 

 

Hopefully gonna watch both tomorrow.

[legacyme3]

I finally watched last night's episode. So thanks for spoiler tags!

 

Spoiler

First thing is first, I absolutely hate Kass. I was largely indifferent to this point, but I feel like she was being incredibly fucking petty with her grudge with Sarah, and as a result, some of my favorite players get screwed over. Goodbye Spencer. You are probably next.

 

I also think her flipping is a bad idea. She wasn't neccesarily the bottom person in that group, but she's DEFINITELY the bottom person in the other group. She won't be cut next episode, to maintain the edge over everyone else, and also because she's no threat in challenges, but she won't be making the Final Four with this group, I feel. She's going to be kicked out once the edge is no longer needed.

 

All over a petty grudge. She should have held her temper, stuck with her original tribe, kicked out Jefra, and THEN convinced people to kick out Sarah. As it stands, she's hurt herself short term AND long term. Not a fan of this move at all.

 

Only person I dislike more is Trish, but she's actually playing this game well, so I don't "hate" her, or question her. She knows what she's doing, even if she also is petty. (A lot of the women this season have been incredibly petty. I haven't watched many seasons, so maybe this is just how the show works?)

 

Tony and LJ's move completely baffled me. The moment he displayed his immunity idol, he was safe, and he knew it. Putting an immunity idol on LJ makes sense if he's trying to maintain numbers, but then he gives up his idol for someone who isn't even him. And with how strong Tony is, he could need it. LJ's move however, I cannot defend. Using your OWN idol on Tony, when there is little to no benefit in doing so is completely ridiculous. Especially since it was known before the vote that Tony had an idol. Tony didn't use his idol until JUST before the votes were read, which means there couldn't have been any votes for Tony anyways. In short - the move was highly illogical, and he just threw away a free idol/immunity. Terrible short term move. Potentially terrible long term move. They may trust each other, but now, no one trusts them.

 

The immunity challenge was the first this season I felt I couldn't possibly do. The first rung, and the top don't look problematic (I don't know how bad the wind was, but I balance on things narrower than that for fun sometimes) but that middle rung looks impossible for me. Narrow, without the ability to spread your legs out more (I have long lanky legs, so my center of gravity would be screwed there). At least with the top rung you had the ability to squat, as long as you didn't touch the platform (lower center of gravity is beneficial and the reason Woo beat out Tony).

 

I wasn't surprised to see everyone get eliminated as soon as the top rung came into play. Too many people led with their wrong foot, or were completely awkward trying to get up (which could be expected, as they were basically standing still for 30 minutes), and made no effort to lower their center of gravity. Tony lucked out getting up, and clearly was barely hanging on, but Woo got up and centered himself almost immediately. 

 

Next week's episode looks amusing. An idol hunt. I bet this "secret power" idol has the ability to protect more than just yourself. Or something similar. I don't know the history of this show that well.

 

Also, love the color black for the tribe. I don't think I've ever seen one?

[Glaciermage]

Spoiler

 

Well as Kass said, there is a lot of game left to be played. These players go over every possible scenario in their minds, and make moves based on what will get them $1,000,000, not just what is best for them in the short term. I would be highly surprised if Kass made this move without having some sort of plan for next week, besides being 6th in an alliance of 6. I'm hoping that Kass is working on some sort of new alliance, and I can see Spencer as factoring into that alliance heavily. He is really the only one of the "bottom 4" that I want to see go far. Hopefully Trish and Kass team up and all the beauty starts getting eliminated. At any rate, having a "big move" on your resume is what wins you the money in the end, so I don't see alliances staying the same for very long. Everyone is trying to put their mark on the game.

 

But, I could be totally wrong and Spencer (or Kass) goes next week already.

 

[Kamau]

Finally getting around to watching The Amazing Race!

 

Spoiler

I find it ironic and hilarious that the "Twinnies" from Sri Lanka didn't make it to the leg where...they went to Sri Lanka.

 

I'm not surprised that the first task put all the teams on even playing ground. It would have been great for Margie and Luke if this had been a non-elimination, but alas. I'd like to ride a train like that, with the open seating and everything. 

 

Ohhh my god, Rachel. That's hilarious, but at the same time I'm just sitting here shaking my head. (Is it wrong that I just like saying the word 'Tuk tuk'?) The producers must have hated her, with how much gas money she spent on the wrong cars. :p I also find it amazing that none of her green cars ended up having a green ticket. (And I love how John was like "Rachel you're doing it wrong...oh yay this is my car. Thanks!") Big Easy physically moving his cars to the front was great, too. This whole challenge was wonderful.

 

Big Easy is too big for the Tuk Tuks. XD That's great. 

 

“If he gonna get all up in some doo-doo, I guess I gotta get all up in some doo-doo.”  I'm loving Flight Time & Big Easy more and more with each passing episode. It's probably coming down to Brenchel vs. The Blondes....We shall see in a few minutes. Anything can happen. 

 

Can we talk about how smart it is, that the taxis have their four-ways on? And that was a glorious move, the Afghanimals and the Tuk Tuk. It's always exciting when you can tell that it's a legit foot race. 

 

It's never a good thing when the cabs go in opposite directions. And even worse that it's Flight Time & Big Easy who went the wrong way. D: Noo I don't like this. 

 

Noooo Brenchel made it to the mat and they're still lost--

 

Yay! Phew. 

 

Ha. Non-elimination! You can always tell by Phil's speech at the mat. Though it sucks that it's the Blondes who get what's probably the last non-elimination.

 

You're right, I totally forgot that the Cowboys still have the Express Pass. (Frankly, sometimes I wonder if they remember. Haha.)

 

Also, concerning my Order of Operations, the Afghanimals have moved up to above Brenchel with this episode. I'm also tempted to drop the blondes below John/Jessica but I dunno yet.

 

What's happening Sunday that there isn't going to be an episode?

 

Heading on to Survivor now. 

 

Spoiler

That's...a really fast merge. What was the point of dividing into two tribes, just to whittle away two or so people? I mean there's a possibility that this wasn't supposed to come for another ep, but with Lindsay quitting timetables were bumped up...maybe.

 

('Hey you know those pillows we stole from you three days ago? Well...here, you can have them back now.' ;) )

 

Another idol with different powers? What's this? Interest immediately piqued. 

 

"She swore on her badge to me." You go ahead and go on about that, Tony. I hope Sarah calls you on your BS. Ugh. I like Tony's game except when he pulls his shit. "Swear on your badge to me." Get out of here. 

 

Though I will say, I'm not a fan of Sarah's ego. "You cross me, and I'll go over to the other guys." Sarah, you're not trusted right now. You're being stupid. Cas is absolutely right when she says "She's not in the six, she's in the one." And then she tells them what Tony said to her. Geezus. 

 

I enjoy that indecisive Tasha is the one to step in and play mediator. And she's being a terrible mediator. Tasha, "if you don't like her, just vote her out" is a terrible attempt at mediation.

 

I stand by the idea that Jeff's commentary is the hardest part of challenges like this. Haha, no one can make the transition. 

 

Between Woo and Tony...go Woo! Go go! I wonder if those shoes are actually helpful. Yay! Now I'm interested in seeing how the vote goes tonight. 

 

I agree with Sarah about wanting to get rid of a stronger player than a weaker one, but I also agree with Cas about getting the numbers first. I just hope that if they do it, they take Tony by surprise. Sarah, stop saying you can guarantee that Tony doesn't have an idol.

 

Tony is going on the defensive. The second he started going at her instead of letting her think about it, I would have walked away. He is trying way too hard. And did she not hear that Trish is above her in Tony's mind? He admitted it outright.

 

But yeah. Sarah's "I'm going to wait till tribal" was a stupid thing to say. 

 

I like Trish approaching Cas but I really hope Cas doesn't believe Trish. "We're after Sarah, too"? Yeah okay. 

 

The smartest move for Cas right now would be, in my opinion, to vote for Tony with the rest of "Apari". Then when he plays his idol, they'll get rid of Sarah anyway. And then Cas can still be in with her original tribe and not worry about being on the bottom of an older alliance that only wants to grab her for her vote. 

 

"I could give it to LJ, I could give it to Jefra, I could give it to Trish." Hey Sarah. You know what that says?

 

"We're voting for the other one." Mom and I couldn't remember who 'the other one' would be. XD I still would have voted for Tony. Saying 'the other one' just means you admit to being prepared to vote for Tony. That's not very smart. 

 

And then he gives it to LJ. And then LJ gives the other one to him! Ha! I hope Sarah goes home because of all this. That would be gold. 

 

Cas, flipping was the stupidest thing you could have done. You are now at the bottom of six. But she might have a friend in Jefra now...at what expense? (Who were the two people bickering in the preview? Was that Cas and Jefra, or Cas and Morgan? Either way, she's starting to get into disagreements with everyone, which is not a good thing. And a shame because I liked her until this ep.)

 

I'm hoping that next week, someone from "the five" (Tony and co) f's up and that way Cas can come back to her original group, and maybe pull Jefra along with her because it's clear that no one was thinking of her with the idol-giving.

 

IDK about Spencer and Cas teaming up for a while; Spencer was pretty pissed with her decision. Yeah, there's a lot of game left (it may depend heavily on who finds this 'idol with a different power', as well as whether the old idols come back out).

[Glaciermage]

I believe it was Kass and Morgan bickering. Will be interesting to see what happens. I think we are all dumbfounded as to why Kass chose to go the route she did. Will be interesting to see if there was a good reason behind it, or if chaos Kass was just being chaos Kass.

As far as Spencer being upset... Well what other choice does he have? If Kass comes back to him with a legitimate alliance offer, he better take it. He has nothing to lose at this point.

[Kamau]

Survivor

 

Spoiler

Aand within the first two minutes, Kass is rapidly removing any interest in returning back to her original alliance. 

 

"I pissed off five people, but I gained five friends. And the five pissed off people will get over it." (Not sure if great point, or great stupidity...)

 

And here we go, more of the catfighting. Siiiigh. ("Kass is mad because I'm prettier than her"? Really, Morgan? I thought I liked you.)

 

Loving all the Outback plugging. The product placement is strong in this show.

 

I could do this challenge. Slowly. (I wish Kass and Spencer were on the same team. I'd like to see them get to talk again. But I'm also super excited for Spencer to go on reward!) 

 

Kass what are you doing stop throwing Spencer under the bus. 

 

Spencer had the magic napkin? Oh good. Though it makes me a little sad that the game has become so predictable that people know when you're off to do something. And, it was a good strategic move, but I can't believe Woo threw Spencer's pants into the water. XD

 

Spencer you're supposed to be smart way to leave the idol clue right where Woo can pick it up. At least put it in your pocket, or get rid of it! Memorize it!. Though it makes me sad because I'm pretty sure he's just gonna pass it off to everyone. That's not strategic at all.  Let the race begin!

 

Yes Spencer found it yessss

 

I would never win immunity though, not with all these balance challenges. Tasha is so good at concentration, and I'm glad that it's Spencer vs. Tasha in the end, though I'm hoping Spencer wins so he doesn't have to play his idol--- yes! I really thought he was about to lose because Tasha is like a rock in these challenges. That's so exciting! I feel so much better about his chances. XD

 

(Unrelated, I kind of like Jefra.)

 

Spencer and Kass are talking again! Though I mean, Spence, don't tell her about your idol... I would love for Tony or Morgan to go home at this point, so I'd be content either way. I'd even be cool with Tasha going home, except for the fact that I don't want Tony's group to have the numbers forever. 

 

Spencer's "yay I won immunity" speech sounded suspiciously like a potential "yeah but I'm gonna pass it off" but at the same time, Spencer isn't stupid. I hate how Morgan is already saying "keep me because I'm useless." I hate when people like that stay in the game over anyone who's actually playing. 

 

Watching this tribal...I think I would like an alliance of Spencer, Trish, Jefra, LJ, Jeremiah, and Kass. I know it would never happen, but I think those are my six favorites. Maybe. 

 

I'm not against seeing Morgan go. But I am sad that Tony's smug grin is going to stick around and be in the numbers.

[Glaciermage]

Spoiler

How does Spencer not have more facial hair 22 days in?

I'm so glad Spencer won immunity and found an idol. That really helps his chances. I still like Kass a lot. I think she is playing so smart. It actually makes sense to be on the bottom of the biggest alliance at this point. It made sense for her not to switch back at this point too. She has been right where she wants to be this entire time. No other player has been in as comfortable a position as her, and yet she has been on the worst tribe at one point and in both alliances.

Eventually I think it will be in her best interests to ally with Spencer, which is what I'm hoping for. The 3 brain tribe would have been a huge target if they had stayed together. Now they are all just lying in the weeds and can be dangerous at the end if they survive.

I'm glad Morgan went. She was so into herself and worthless. Not just physically around camp, but strategically too.

It was a bit weak that Woo did that to Spencer. But I loved his explanation of it all. Ninja mode and Sonic references and all that. Spencer and Woo are my 2 fave players. Kass is on my fave list. I would say LJ and Jefra round out my top 5.

It would be fantastic if the big alliance is starting to break up already. Looks like that is happening based on the previews... So it probably isn't yet. But it will soon.

[Kamau]

Spoiler

"Looks like that is happening based on the previews... So it probably isn't yet." That is the most spot on way to describe Survivor, ever. 

 

I agree that Kass has maneuvered herself, at least temporarily, into a good position. She's new enough to her 'new' alliance where they're still going to foot around her to make sure she doesn't turn and run back. I'd say even without all the drama apparently coming up, she'd have had at least one more week without worry.

 

You make a good point about the Brains needing to divide and conquer or else have huge targets on their backs. I think it would be hilarious (and would thus love) if they made up the final three. Even though Tasha would deserve it the least of the three.

 

I'm thinking next week, one of the big alliance will go home. I feel like they have the numbers, and they'll continue to have the numbers even if one of them goes home, so the opening is there to start plugging if anyone's getting too big for their britches.

 

Spencer has already shown his willingness to talk more to Kass about coming back to an alliance. That's good, because that means Kass will probably continue trying to keep him around (as much as she can while continuing to 'not take a side' within her side).  As much as there's "a long way to go" though, I really don't think Kass has a shot at winning, considering she's been sending all the people who dislike her...straight to the jury.

[legacyme3]

So, I finally got around to watching this week's episode (baseball season really takes my Wednesday nights away).

 

Spoiler

First impression of the new episode: I still hate Kass, she is easily my least favorite person there, and has been for a long time.

 

Second impression: Oh yay, more catfighting. And wouldn't you know it, it's one of the "beautiful" people getting into it with one of the "not-so-beautiful" people. I have never seen so many catfights. Like anywhere. Ever. Maybe I just have done a good job of avoiding it.

 

All the whiney bullshit aside, it was an interesting episode (although my grandmother, in her infinite wisdom, decided to spoil the ending before I even started watching the show. That pissed me off) and things are starting to get more and more interesting.

 

That reward challenge looked fun to do. And I think that's one I'd totally rule at (I'm good with balance beams, and climbing walls). Love that the reward was something fun. Usually, reward challenges don't interest me, because it's like, what's the point of using so much energy on something that won't neccesarily help me win the game. The food was an added bonus. And this whole hidden immunity clue in the napkin thing is new to me. So that, at least, did surprise me.

 

Oh shit, Spencer went into the woods, and apparently this isn't a new thing to the show, because Woo immediately follows after him. Then steals the clue that Spencer left out in the open. And then throws his pants in the water. Ouch. Hope Spencer is a forgiving person, or that kind of shit could cost Woo down the line. Oh wait. J'tia threw out all the fucking rice and it took them forever to get rid of her.  

 

So now, Woo has the clue, and decides to share it with everyone in his group. Then Spencer comes back and does the same. I dunno, if I'm part of Spencer's group, I feel a little sad that he didn't tell us earlier... I'll remember this later.

 

Spencer has found the clue, by some good fortune, but Kass is standing right there... how on earth will he pull this off and get the clue from under her no... oh right, Kass is an idiot, I forgot. Did she not even question why Spencer was just STANDING IN ONE PLACE WHEN THERE IS AN IDOL TO BE FOUND? Didn't she consider for a moment, just a moment, that maybe he found the idol and was just waiting for her to turn away? And then she turns away and he pockets it.

 

Big win for Spencer, and somehow, despite EVERYONE chasing after it, manages to keep the discovery a secret. Makes me wonder how much longer everyone searched before giving up. Also makes me wonder, since no one seems to know about it, how much longer people will spend looking for an idol that isn't even there.

 

Immunity challenge, and... shit, it's ANOTHER balance challenge. I get that balance challenges are painful, but why so many at once, and why all in a row? It's just a little irritating to see essentially the same challenges. My favorites to win this challenge are Tasha (because she seems to do fine with this), Spencer (because he has insane will), and Woo (because Woo is a fucking ninja). Really happy to see Tasha and Spencer duking it out and holy crap they've stood there for an hour and a half. I don't know if I could stand still for an hour and a half, let alone do it while standing on my tip toes and holding a block on top of my head. They made it look much much more effortless.

 

Spencer wins! That's another huge win. Just don't pass off the idol or something stupid.

 

OK, back at camp, and we get to see what may be cracks. Kass is willing to look at all options. She's still my least favorite player (and person) but she's at least going to consider turning back (which would make no sense for her, unfortunately, because then she'd be on the bottom yet again.) The more I look at Kass, the more I think she's going to finish 5th or 6th. She's just too unpredictable to keep in the game too long. And I don't mean that as a compliment, I think this style of play comes back to bite her, and hard.

 

My current top 5 going into tribal council would probably be Spencer, Woo, Tony, LJ, and Morgan (I guess her? Though she did irritate me this episode. I don't have another player I really like, so I'll leave #5 vacant for now). 

 

And Morgan's gone. Well shit. I expected it all episode, but whatever. She kind of deserved it after what she said at tribal. If she shuts her mouth, "maybe" Tony goes home. Although, I would have liked that less.

 

Goddammit Kass, look what you've done, you've made me happy one of my top 5 left, because it saves another member of my top 5.

 

Can they please vote her out next week?

 

Speaking of which, I really hope Woo flips next episode. It would be funny to see how Woo convinces Spencer he's with them. Especially after throwing his pants in the water

[Glaciermage]

Kamau, you make an excellent point about Kass not getting votes. That part of the game is the hardest for me to wrap my brain around, since I have only watched one season. I would've thought Tyson wouldn't have gotten votes either, but the other finalists helped him. But yeah Kass may be a perfect example of someone who goes far but doesn't get votes.

And Leggy it's funny you should mention the potential of woo and Spencer cuz I thought about that too. After their public disagreement it may be the perfect opportunity to blindside if they bury the hatchet, and I think both of them are playing emotionless enough to do it. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's another intriguing possibility.

[legacyme3]

Yeah, unlikely, but certainly a possibility. I could see an alliance built around Spencer, Woo, Tash, Jeremiah, and Kass forming next episode.

 

Spencer, Tash, and Jeremiah are already a part of the alliance, and as mentioned, I think Woo flipping is a possibility. He's smart, and I think he knows that he's going to be expendable soon (not neccesarily next episode) due to his skill in challenges, and the fact that they already have an advantage in numbers. He could see Spencer/Tash/Jeremiah as a ticket into the final 5, if they can oust Tony. Kass flipping back next episode makes sense to me. As it is, there are 9 players left. She is in an alliance with what, 5 other people right now? If Woo flips, that'd make it closer than expected, at 5-4. Kass knows that if she's going to jump back, she's going to have to do it before the numbers get "too" overwhelming. (If they manage to make the advantage 6-2 or 5-3 next episode, then Kass would be an easy target for everyone remaining in the game). Although, with how she's played the game, she's setting herself up to be in the Final Three, because as has been mentioned, who is really going to vote for her at this point? Sarah hates her, and is likely going to vote for literally anyone else, and I can't see Morgan voting for her either, as she'll probably vote for Jeremiah or LJ, with everyone else falling behind if neither is there (and I think at least one will be there)

 

What concerns me is that I still think there's another idol out there.

 

The mail said there was an idol with "special" powers. However, the idol found last episode just seemed like a normal hidden immunity idol to me.

 

I haven't seen recent seasons so I have no idea if that's Survivor's definition of "special" (If so, that's disappointing).

[Glaciermage]

Spencer said (in the caption) as he was reading that it was "just a normal one." I've never heard of a special one before. I wonder if you can use it after the votes are read, or on you and another person. Could be extremely powerful.

[legacyme3]

Spencer said (in the caption) as he was reading that it was "just a normal one." I've never heard of a special one before. I wonder if you can use it after the votes are read, or on you and another person. Could be extremely powerful.

 

That's what I've been assuming, but again, I just have no clue other than my own guess on what I'd make it do myself.

[Kamau]

There has never been a "special" idol before. According to the internet (note: I have no idea how the internet knows this, so I'm not totally trusting it) it supposedly would allow you to play your idol after the votes are read, rather than before, like normal idols. Honestly, I'm not sure if I like this idea, because that basically gives you one free pass - after all, why play it at all if you're not the one with the most votes? But we'll see if/when they find it.

 

Legacy, that point you made about how you couldn't believe Kass didn't suspect Spencer when they were idol searching is a good one, but I don't think he was just standing there awkwardly. I feel like he was continuing to search that specific area, much like everyone was going over the same spots on repeat because "it has to be somewhere around here, right?" I'd be a lot more suspicious of how he apparently walked away after finding it. You're right that they must have continued searching for it, but I'm also interested in noting that everyone kind of stopped looking for it. So even though they were all out there, they discussed who had been "least likely to find it" (note: Spencer's name was not on this list). Honestly? Since no one played the idol at tribal, I'd automatically suspect that Spencer had it since he'd won immunity. 

 

Kass has a lot of people who hate her, sure, but it would all depend on who made it to the final 3 with her. There are a number of different reasons why jury members give their votes at the end, and only some of them actually make sense to me. For instance, Morgan would probably pick anyone other than Kass, whereas someone else might decide that of the three people sitting there, Kass played the best game. (I have no idea who she'd have to be sitting next to in order to get this vote; probably someone like Morgan, honestly. Or someone like Jefra, who hasn't really been notable at all yet.) Then there's people like Spencer, who might choose her due to old ties, and again, that would depend on who she's up there with (i.e., Kass vs. Tony, etc.).

 

I think Kass will probably consider coming back to whatever alliance Spencer might propose next week. And I agree that this is Woo's best opportunity to flip; after all, who's he connected to in his alliance? I haven't really seen him bond with anyone other than Cliff. And if he gets any wind of this supposed paranoia of Tony's, I don't see him wanting to stick around. 

[legacyme3]

Out of curiosity, I decided to run some simulations, that are based off assumptions. If we are indeed going to see a Final Three rather than Two or Four or whatever craziness then here are the possible combinations that Kass is involved in. Along with a convenient list of who would be in the jury should that situation happen. I am putting it in a spoiler tag so that way it can be minimized, since it IS a huge wall of text, and not everyone would be interested in it. I personally am interested, so I decided to draw it out for myself. You have all been warned.

 

Spoiler

Kass/Jefra/Spencer - Sarah/Morgan/Tasha/Trish/Woo/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Jefra/Tasha - Sarah/Morgan/Spencer/Trish/Woo/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Jefra/Trish - Sarah/Morgan/Spencer/Tasha/Woo/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Jefra/Woo - Sarah/Morgan/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Jefra/LJ - Sarah/Morgan/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Woo/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Jefra/Tony - Sarah/Morgan/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Woo/LJ/Jeremiah

Kass/Jefra/Jeremiah - Sarah/Morgan/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Woo/LJ/Tony

Kass/Spencer/Tasha - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Trish/Woo/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Spencer/Trish - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Tasha/Woo/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Spencer/Woo - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Trish/Tasha/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Spencer/LJ - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Trish/Woo/Tasha/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Spencer/Tony - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Trish/Woo/LJ/Tasha/Jeremiah

Kass/Spencer/Jeremiah - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Trish/Woo/LJ/Tony/Tasha

Kass/Tasha/Trish - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Woo/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Tasha/Woo - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Trish/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Tasha/LJ - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Woo/Trish/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Tasha/Tony - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Woo/LJ/Trish/Jeremiah

Kass/Tasha/Jeremiah - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Woo/LJ/Tony/Trish

Kass/Trish/Woo - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/LJ/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Trish/LJ - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/Woo/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Trish/Tony - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/LJ/Woo/Jeremiah

Kass/Trish/Jeremiah - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/LJ/Tony/Woo

Kass/Woo/LJ - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Tony/Jeremiah

Kass/Woo/Tony - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/LJ/Jeremiah

Kass/Woo/Jeremiah - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Tony/LJ

Kass/LJ/Tony - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Woo/Jeremiah

Kass/LJ/Jeremiah - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Woo/Tony

Kass/Tony/Jeremiah - Sarah/Morgan/Jefra/Spencer/Tasha/Trish/Woo/LJ

 

 

Unless I missed something, there are 28 possible combinations where Kass is in the Final Three. IF there is a Final Three. Of those 28 possible combinations, I'm not sure there is one where she's the clear winner. In most simulations, I see her being paired with at least one person who is more likable or played the game better (or both). The combination where she has the best chance is Kass/Jefra/Trish (Because Jefra doesn't stand out, and Trish is just as confrontational, if not more). However, there is literally no chance that combination happens.

 

The most likely results have her being in a Final Three with at least ONE of Spencer/Tony/Woo, and all three are incredibly strong players who would blow her out of the water with votes. If we eliminate every potential pairing where Spencer/Tony/Woo are sitting next to her, we are left with only 10 combinations (noted above in bold).

 

Looking at strictly the possibilities in bold, where she has the highest chance of winning (in my opinion), there still isn't much hope, as she alienated both Sarah AND Morgan. That's already two votes against her in all likelihood, meaning she'd likely need to pull in at LEAST 4 of the remaining 6 votes to win. Looking at JUST the bolded possibilities, is there a possibility where she gets at least 4 votes presently? I don't think there is. (Even in Kass/Jefra/Trish, I think she loses to Jefra, possibly.)

 

I think the only way she can possibly win this game is by making amends with Spencer, Tasha, and Jeremiah, and by getting one of the members of the other clicque (Woo) to come along with her. And even then it's a longshot.

 

Note, these are just my opinions. For all I know, Kass has this game won, because people like giving a million dollars to people who got on their bad side.