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[legacyme3]

So, if my eyes don't deceive me, next week is the double episode of the season... with that in mind, my power rankings will account for that. As two people will leave, I want to get them in spots 9 and 10.

 

EPISODE 10 AND 11 POWER RANKINGS

Spoiler

 

1. Jeremy Collins - Barring an epic blindside, Jeremy is your winner. The episode itself confirmed this, where Ciera (I think) said that if Jeremy makes it to the end, he's the winner of the game. Well now we're down to the Final 10. Nobody has made a move against him, and he has TWO FUCKING IDOLS. He seemingly has Spencer in his back pocket, and if nobody makes a move next week in either episode, I'll be ready to write his name in ink as being at the FTC. I don't see anyone making a move. And if they do, Spencer or someone else will make the mistake of letting Jeremy know they are coming for him. He'll idol out whoever goes after him. He's playing this game like the godfather, and he has a reason for wanting to win that goes beyond the "I want million dollars" story everyone has. 

 

Odds to win - 65% (yes, that high, nobody is in the same league and he has both idols)

 

2. Spencer Bledsoe - Why not? Nobody is targeting him, which is odd, and nobody is even throwing his name out there as a threat. Wiglesworth was thrown out there as a threat. Same with Ciera. Same with Wentworth. Same with Jeremy, Fishbach, and Joe. Spencer is the only somewhat athletic person besides Keith who is being ignored in these threat discussions. Which means he's probably on the bottom of every voting bloc. And if he's not, he's not seen as the leader of the blocs, which if last night proved anything, will be vital in determining the winner of the game. He's safe next week, presumably, but being a double episode, we don't even have a second preview to speculate anything. We're going in blind.

 

Odds to win - 15% (down because he is clearly just Jeremy's lapdog right now).

 

3. Keith Nale - The only thing keeping me from eliminating him from winner contention is that everybody loves Keith. If he were to somehow get to the end with Abi and Tasha, I think he actually wins, but the odds of that are pretty much zero. He's likable, and in this episode, he even spit... twice... at least. He's nothing more than a comic relief character, and his presence in the preview confirms as much. He is a driver of stories that aren't his own, but he can't live the story himself. He's amazing, but he's not your winner.

 

Odds to win - <1% (down because Jeremy boosted his case and someone had to suffer).

 

4. Kimmi Kappenberg - She is now the last old-schooler standing! Varner, PG, Terry, Savage, and Wiglesworth have all been vanquished. After Kimmi, the oldest player left by way of season number is Stephen Fishbach (18 - Tocantins), and he's more new-school, in both status and his way of thinking, so only one remains. She hasn't been playing a great game, and I'm ready to knock her out of winner contention. At this point, she's a goat, or a casualty of the newly founded Witches Coven forming a bloc with Jeremy or Spencer (or both) to keep Fishbach safe as a shield. Her story is more or less done. She made it to the jury. All that's left to find out is how far into the end game she gets.

 

Odds to win - 0% (eliminated from contention because she can't beat any two players left. There was a case with Wiglesworth being beat by her, but even that was a long shot).

 

5. Tasha Fox - The more I see Tasha, the more I think Tasha isn't very fun television. She is interesting with her back against the wall, but being in the numbers, she's just not giving us soundbites worthy of being put on the show. She can still compete in challenges, but this season has incredible challenge performers, and she just can't keep up. The self-proclaimed challenge beast is looking less likely to win said challenges going forward. I think she might try to make a move soon, because she has to. Now is the time for it. If she doesn't she's going to miss her window, and fail her second chance.

 

Odds to win - 5% (Just treading water right now... no movement)

 

6. Kelley Wentworth - Call me crazy, but I think she's going to last longer than any other member of the Witches Coven. She was at the very bottom this week, but because of three votes flipping was saved. She could be a master of forming these voting blocs without being the face of the bloc (in this case, it was Stephen who did all the legwork) and that skill will serve her well in the weeks to come. Jeremy has both idols, but that's a blessing AND a curse for her. Jeremy wants her out, so it would be pretty easy for him to idol her out... if Kelley targets Jeremy. The blessing is, I think Kelley is sneaky enough to target Jeremy without his knowing... through Stephen or another player. Wentworth is one of three. While you want the minority out soon, you can let them by just one more week... if there's a bigger target.

 

Odds to win - 8% (dropped because Jeremy now has two idols, so she's on bottom, and leading a minority... but not sunk quite yet).

 

7. Abi-Maria Gomes - I don't know how many times I can write a paragraph about her and keep it interesting. She. Is. A. Goat. A big goat that has no chance of winning the game. She's the least likable, has pissed off basically every member of the jury at some point, and isn't in a majority alliance that can carry her. Her best case scenario is third place. Her worst case involves being the next one voted out. She's not a threat though, so her likely result is probably closer to the former than the latter... but (and it's a big but... like Abi's) it's entirely plausible the Witches Coven abandons Abi in order to buy goodwill with the majority "alliance".

 

Odds to win - 0% (eliminated because come on, really?)

 

8. Joe Anglim - I'm only placing him this low because even I think it's a little far-fetched that he wins two immunities next week. Jeremy "might" play an idol on him, since Joe isn't going to win at the end, but as always, his safest route is just winning more immunities. I think he's already set a record for the longest time immune in the game. He has yet to be an option at any tribal council. He could break the immunity record. But he has to win next week. Does he have two in him? He's going to need it to reach his professed goal of hitting the family visit.

 

Odds to win - 1% (lowered entirely because he has the wrong idea about the game. His gears are working, but they aren't working properly. If he gets to the end, his only case is not losing immunity and being the "strongest" Survivor)

 

9. Ciera Eastin - Somebody from the Witches Coven is likely leaving next week in either episode. Ciera, I think, is the most likely one to do so. She's a strategic threat, she's very much in the game, and all about playing to win, and she has friends on the jury, especially in Kass. She's not really a threat to win, but she's probably the biggest threat to any player's individual game right now, other than Jeremy. If the players have to target someone, they will probably split the votes again. If they do, I think Kelley flips from the Coven and burns Ciera. She's all about playing to win. To win though, she's going to somehow need to work Jeremy out of the picture. I think that's out of her power.

 

Odds to win - 1% (lowered because her stock was hurt despite being the secondary target of the majority alliance. She didn't factor into the result, really, and was just a follower).

 

10. Stephen Fishbach - Stephen, that was really really stupid. You do not go for an obvious trap. Spencer went for it too, but he's not being seen as a threat by anyone for whatever reason. Joe actively has it out for you now, and you gave him more firepower to use against you. "Hey, remember that smart strategist, Stephen Fishbach? Well he's got an advantage, and the unknown is bad in a game where the less you know, the worse. Let's get him out." That is all Joe's pitch has to be (in addition to winning immunity again) in order to turn the loyal Jeremy against Stephen. He probably lasts longer in this game if he just lets Spencer go for it. Think he's on the bottom, but I've felt that way for a while. So who knows? Survivor rocks.

 

Odds to win - 4% (his stock is hurt, but his stock was low last week, too. His chance to win is this high because if he can somehow survive, he's got a compelling case at FTC)

 

-----

Odds to win

Jeremy - 65%

Spencer - 15%

Wentworth - 8%

Tasha - 5%

Stephen - 4%

Ciera - 1%

Joe - 1%

Keith - <1%

Kimmi - 0%

Abi - 0%

 

 

Scores - 

 

Team Jenn - 100

Team Max - 103

Team Gordon - 92

Team Leggy - 113

 

I expand my lead again, and am now in near victory territory. I still need to avoid a tragedy like Jeremy or Spencer going home but I don't think Max is going to put either low enough to matter.

[legacyme3]

That was an entertaining two hours...

 

I'm tired, let's get to it.

 

EPISODE 12 POWER RANKINGS

Spoiler

1. Spencer Bledsoe - His stock rises way way up this week. He's shown he's a master of this "voting bloc" strategy that seems to be employed heavily this season. He was on the right side of both votes... or would have been, had Jeremy not played his first idol on Stephen in the first hour. At the end of the day though, he has seemingly separated from Jeremy, which is the only thing he can do, if he wants to win. He can't be Jeremy's goat. If he completely breaks it off, and is looking to take out Jeremy, he can bide his time, working with Kelley, Joe, Abi, and Keith for a vote. In a game where there are 8 people left, all he needs is four to force the tie at worst, and he could very easily have five. Jeremy is down an idol, and his new ally(?) has one of her own again. He probably doesn't need the necklace next week, but it definitely wouldn't hurt.

 

Odds to win - 25% (Jeremy lost an idol, he's in the numbers, seemingly, and he's gotten rid of his biggest strategic threat in Stephen, as well as replaced Ciera in her own alliance.)

 

2. Jeremy Collins - He could be in trouble next week, but I think he skates by. Losing Stephen hurts. Losing Stephen just three days after playing his idol on him hurts even more. Spencer has seemingly flipped off of him, and his only true ally left in the game is Tasha, who would probably sell him out if it came to it. He still has an idol, which is fantastic news, because he might need to use it next week. I still think he's the winner of the season, but that's not as undisputed as it was a week, and two hours of Survivor ago.

 

Odds to win - 50% (Takes a hit by losing his biggest ally and an idol).

 

3. Kelley Wentworth - You have to give her credit. She's fighting, she's scrappy, and she's doing everything she needs to to advance in this game. For now, it means working with Abi, Spencer, and Keith. Not the ideal group to align with, but one that she'll utilize well enough to survive another week. She gained an idol in another exciting idol grab. Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good. Luckily for her, she doesn't need to choose which to be, because she's both right now. I can honestly only see four of the eight players left winning this game after the past episode, and she's one of them.

 

Odds to win - 20% (Raises dramatically due to gaining an idol. She lost Ciera, but that may be more of a blessing than a curse).

 

4. Keith Nale - Still not your winner. Still not your winner. Still not your winner. But he's still going to make it past next week, he's still going to spit, and he's still going to be Keith. No one is going to vote for him now, and no one is going to vote for him at the end. He's not your typical goat, but he's a goat all the same.

 

Odds to win - 0% (I'm eliminating him now, primarily because in an episode where he should have been a leading force, he was in the background, no matter who he is up against at the end, barring a Fishbach-esque performance from his FTC opponents, he's not going to get even a single vote)

 

5. Tasha Fox - Here is where the trouble category begins in earnest. There are four names that I think are on the chopping block for next week. And of those four, Tasha has the most secure position in the game, seemingly. She has a close ally in Jeremy, who has already shown a willingness to play an idol on someone in the name of loyalty (when he did on Fishbach). It's hard to have a better ally like that when it comes to surviving another week. When it comes to winning the game though, Tasha may want to cut Jeremy loose and focus on her own game.

 

Odds to win - 4% (Takes a hit because she didn't really do anything to boost her chances of winning, at this stage, you need to build a FTC case)

 

6. Kimmi Kappenberg - Somehow she got votes. I don't know why, exactly. Splitting the votes, sure, but why Kimmi? What has she done to warrant that consideration? That's the question at hand for me, and it makes me nervous. We got little lead in on the Wiglesworth vote out, and I fear a similar exit for Kimmi. So consider this a safety pick. I don't think she's gone, but there's a chance that is the case.

 

Odds to win - 0% (Still eliminated)

 

7. Abi-Maria Gomes - I hate this woman so much. Early in the merge, she was enjoyable, because she wasn't such a driving factor in the plot. She was only shown making sarcastic jokes with her broken english. That was fun Abi. The Abi I wanted to see on Survivor again. What we got this week was pre-merge Abi, which is the single most annoying thing ever. Hopefully, Joe wins immunity and the tribe can get rid of this albatross.

 

Odds to win - 0% (Still eliminated)

 

8. Joe Anglim - Think time is up for pretty boy. He'll be in the last spot on my rankings for the rest of the season. He had enough allies this week to get rid of a different target. Next week... I don't think Joe will be so lucky if he finds himself without immunity again. Joe finally showed his weak spot, and Spencer fucking crushed the challenge. If Joe doesn't win next week, it's going to be a very easy decision for everyone at Tribal Council. If he does win... well, Survivor is a fun game.

 

Odds to win - 1% (He'd literally have to win every challenge and manage to bring Kimmi and Abi to the end)

 

-----

 

Odds to win

Jeremy - 50%

Spencer - 25%

Wentworth - 20%

Tasha - 4%

Joe - 1%

Keith - 0%

Kimmi - 0%

Abi - 0%

 

Scores - 

 

Team Jenn - 116

Team Max - 113

Team Gordon - 107

Team Leggy - 132

 

Not even a contest anymore. I think even if I were to place the person going home first each week, and Jenn (the second placer) were to place the same person last, I have enough of a lead (a 16 point lead) to be in the lead next week (F7), the week after (F6), and stay in the lead before the Finale (F5?) began. One more good week will lock up the season in favor of me.

[legacyme3]

EPISODE 13 POWER RANKINGS

Spoiler

1. Jeremy Collins - He's the only person that I think is 100% safe next episode. And even that feels like a stretch. He's got a chance at surviving without the use of the idol, but even if they come after him, HE HAS THE IDOL. The only way I see him going home is if Wentworth manages to outfox him. And I don't think anyone is outfoxing him. 

 

Odds to win - 50% (Unchanged from last week, he lost his meat shield, and would seemingly be in the minority, but if he survives next week, he's very likely to make it to the FTC).

 

2. Kelley Wentworth - Just like Jeremy, she has a chance to survive without the idol (could easily toss Kimmi under the bus, without question), but she does still have an idol, which could be what puts power back in her hands. She still needs to do work next week, but she's not in a bad position, and is one of the few who still have a legitimate claim in the finals.

 

Odds to win - 20% (Same as with Jeremy. Her position hasn't really improved or gotten worse. We need next week to determine if she has a real shot)

 

3. Tasha Fox - She's set up as the swing vote. The single most important swing vote in this game, actually. If she sides with the Witches Coven to target Spencer/Jeremy/Keith, then odds are, Wentworth is your winner. If she sides with the Brolliance, then Jeremy and Spencer are your two contenders. Note how in neither situation Tasha is listed as a prime contender. Her only chance of winning this game lies in finding the middle ground. She needs to pull in Keith, Abi, and Kimmi (an unlikelier alliance could not exist), three goats, to get rid of the three threats in the game. The season is almost certainly ending in a F3, and we have 7 people total. Accounting for both idols, they will NEED to blindside at least one of Jeremy/Kelley. And honestly, they probably need to blindside both. This puts Tasha's chances of winning as astronomically low. I won't eliminate her until next week, but she's on the brink. She could hit Final 3. And honestly, I think she gets there, because no one has a reason to target her. But she's not winning without a huge move next week. She needs to do something NOW.

 

Odds to win - 1% (lowered because this week, she needed to do something, and she ended up doing nothing. You can do that and be fine pre-merge or early merge, but you can't get away with it in the end-game. And the family visit is a sign of the end-game)

 

4. Keith Nale - Neither alliance really has a reason to target Keith. He's an older man, who while charismatic, isn't a huge challenge threat (although he has proven he can win), and isn't a strategic force. His one claim at a hypothetical FTC is that he played a strong social game, but so has everyone left in the game except Abi. He's not winning this game. He is however, likely to survive past next week, because the Brolliance won't give up their alliance in the interest of voting out a non-entity, and the Witches Coven is going to target either Spencer or Jeremy, someone who is actually a threat to win this game.

 

Odds to win - 0% 

 

5. Abi-Maria Gomes - If you vote her out, you are being crazy. She is the only person left who is 100% guaranteed to not get a single vote at FTC. She has no strategic plays to claim, no physical claims, and no social play to claim. Her one claim to fame is she didn't screw everybody she worked with... oh wait, she did. The curse of Abi has hit half the players in this game. The only players to significantly work with her and not suffer their own vote-out are Spencer, Kelley, and Tasha. Tasha cut off ties after Angkor, Kelley keeps her at arms length, and Spencer only worked with her in the voting bloc strategy. Anyone who is seriously invested with her (Kimmi) is likely to suffer their own defeat. Abi cannot be trusted.

 

Odds to win - -1000000% (She literally could not have less chance to win this game)

 

6. Kimmi Kappenberg - She's probably the most likely "witch" to go at this point. She wasn't an original member, but her interest in a female only alliance means she's only not one in name. I put her here, because I think the only way a woman goes home is if Wentworth plays her idol, and so does Jeremy. She's unlikely to be the primary target for anyone left in the game. But she might be out by process of elimination. She won't win if she makes it to the end.

 

Odds to win - 0%

 

7. Spencer Bledsoe - It may seem... strange that I'm putting someone with such a high chance of winning this low. But for this next vote, he's got to be the most likely to go. He's a strategic, physical, and social threat. Tasha knows this all too well. She's spent about 60 total days on islands with him. Spencer needs an immunity challenge win to avoid being the primary target. This is why his chance of winning is still high. Look at the competitors left. Jeremy, Keith, Kimmi, Kelley, Tasha, and Abi. Not exactly world beating olympians here. Keith could beat him in a ball challenge, and Jeremy might be marginally stronger than him in a challenge, but the odds are decent he wins immunity. At least 33%. His chance of winning the game though....

 

Odds to win - 29% (His stock goes up now that Joe is gone, as he's the favorite to win any immunity challenge from here on out. Can he do what he couldn't in Cagayan? This is his... second chance... to do so.)

 

-----

 

Odds to win

Jeremy - 50%

Spencer - 29%

Kelley - 20%

Tasha - 1%

Keith - 0%

Kimmi - 0%

Abi - 0%

 

Scores - 

 

Team Jenn - 124

Team Max - 121

Team Gordon - 115

Team Leggy - 140

 

Everyone and their grandmother saw that coming.

[Kamau]

Finally caught up! So many crazy things going on this season. I'm just happy I'm finally up to date. :) 

 

Spoiler

I know Keith has no real chance to win but I love him to pieces. He's probably my favorite.

[legacyme3]

This season has been legitimately insane. I caught up on a few of the older seasons. My only question is "does any season come close to as good as this one?"

 

Because the only two I can think of are Tocantins and Heroes v. Villains. And I'd put this above both. The harsh environment, fantastic characters, and desirable end game (so far) are making this a very satisfying season. 

 

That said, here are my final power rankings. I'm not sure how xfinity is going to do it, but I'm just going to rank them based on where I think they ultimately finish this game. So sad it's ending next week...

 

FINALE POWER RANKINGS

Spoiler

1. Jeremy Collins - So far, I think he's your winner. He still has an idol. If Kimmi, Kelley, and Tasha do decide to go for an all girls thing (I think they squashed it last week, honestly), they still need to get either Keith or Spencer on board in order to force him out, without a tiebreaker challenge... and again, that's ignoring his idol. If he plays it, he's safe to Final Five. If he gets to Final Five with Spencer/Tasha/Keith, then there's no way he doesn't advance to the end game... I think he's your most likely winner, because of a few factors... he hasn't been a target all game, despite being one of the best players out there. He's built personal relationships with everyone so far, Kass, Savage, Kelly, Stephen, and Joe are all pretty close to him, and Ciera will respect that he made moves. The only wild-card is Abi, and she has no real reason to vote for anyone in particular. Also, I think he's going to drop the bomb that his wife is pregnant at the FTC, which is an instant million dollar sympathy vote.

 

Odds to win - 50% (I have no reason to lower his odds, nor raise them)

 

2. Spencer Bledsoe - For Spencer to win, one thing has to happen. He has to get rid of Jeremy. He can beat Keith. He can beat Tasha. He can beat Wentworth or Kimmi. He might be able to beat Jeremy, but it's close, and I don't think Spencer emerges on top. For Spencer to get rid of Jeremy, one of two things needs to happen. Either he blindsides Jeremy, getting him out without him using an idol (Jeremy would be stupid to not use it), or he flushes Jeremy's idol, and has whoever is left of Keith, Kelley, Kimmi, and Tasha to vote Jeremy out at F5. He has a good FTC resume, if he gets there. He's a strong competitor, having won twice now, and with all the big challenge competitors gone, he could win his way to the end. In fact, that might be his best bet. To this point, he's survived thanks to the personal bonds he has with everyone this season. The flipside to that is it means someone has to feel betrayed. If he votes out Jeremy, then Jeremy might (will) be bitter, and that can be enough to poison the jury against him. Spencer's best chance is to get Keith, Kelley, and Kimmi on board to vote out Jeremy, throw his own vote at Tasha or Kelley, and hope Jeremy is blindsided. If he gets to FTC, he had a connection with Kass (who saved him earlier), Savage (who says he's a good kid, even though he tried to vote him out... also he's an alpha like Savage, which gives him bonus points), Ciera (who has to appreciate his style of play), Fishbach (who trusted Spencer implicitly despite Spencer voting against him multiple times), and Joe. His biggest claim is mastering the voting bloc strategy. That's huge.

 

Odds to win - 40% (His stock raises big time, just for surviving to the finale. He basically needs two challenge wins, and to hope that Jeremy gets eliminated. Even if Jeremy is there, he has a chance, but it's slim)

 

3. Tasha Fox - Ultimately, I think your F3 (assuming F3) is going to be Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha. I also think they finish in that order. Tasha has played a pretty poor game, honestly, and may be the second biggest goat left (at least Keith can claim he's light-hearted). She's tried playing halfway. She wants to be a villain, but clings to thinks like alliances, and more or less begged Spencer for her life. She's got no real case at a FTC. She can claim that in a game of voting blocs, she got to the end with her core alliance. But in this case, she's on the bottom of that alliance. She's the Taj to Jeremy and Spencer's JT and Stephen. She might get a throwaway vote, but unless she can get to the end with a Keith and a Kimmi, she has no chance of winning. She doesn't have the relationships with the jurors that Spencer or Jeremy have, and she can't really vote out anyone and preserve the relationship at this stage. She feuded with Kass (major points against her, especially since Kass is the mayor of Ponderosa), and wasn't particularly close with anyone outside of Stephen, who will have two better options if she does stick with Jeremy and Spencer. She needs to cut them loose.

 

Odds to win - <1% (Her chance to win is entirely dependent on getting the two goats to the end.)

 

4. Kelley Wentworth - Anyone forget she still has an idol? Because she does! And she'd be stupid to not use it if she is on the block next. Just using her idol to take out a Keith or a Spencer, or a Tasha will go a long way to getting her to FTC. If she gets to FTC, she has one of the most compelling cases. She's basically been playing from the bottom the entire game. She was in the majority exactly once, at the beginning of the game. Once the tribal switch happened, she was back to being on the bottom. Joe's challenge strength kept them from going to tribal, but even if they had gone, she would have likely been able to get rid of Terry. She gets to the merge, and again, on the bottom. Then she uses her idol to get rid of the most votes an idol has ever gotten rid of. Then she finds another idol! Rather than use it instantly, she was able to navigate the voting blocs with the Witches Coven, without ever being the "face" or threat behind it. Ciera was ousted, then Abi last week. Kelley aligned herself with the two people she needed to align herself with just to get to this stage. The question remaining is if she can use her idol and navigate the voting blocs again. She has some major headway to make with Spencer, Jeremy, or Tasha, because Keith and Kimmi is not going to be enough. The easiest person to flip MIGHT be Spencer. Spencer needs to get rid of Jeremy, and Kelley needs to get rid of Jeremy or Tasha. She has a few personal relationships on the jury, Kass and her aren't close, but they also don't appear to hate each other. She was seemingly close with Ciera, Joe, and Kelly. Stephen will respect the game she played, since he more or less played the same game in Tocantins. Abi still probably likes her. She might have trouble getting there, but I think she can win.

 

Odds to win - 9% (lowered, because she lost Abi, who was a good number to have in her corner. Had she gotten rid of Tasha, she may have more headaches, but what's 4 more days?)

 

5. Kimmi Kappenberg - I can see the first vote next week going any which way, which makes choosing this rankings difficult. Kimmi, I believe, will be the next strike in Tasha's campaign to "get rid of the weak players", and to "reward the fans". It's just bull to get her further in the game, but it's still a valid point that will weigh on Jeremy and Spencer's minds. Kelley probably wants to take her to the end, and it can be assumed that Keith is up for whatever. The question then becomes, who goes first? Is it Kimmi? Is it Keith? Or is it one of the top contenders? Each season generally has a goat at the end. Kimmi would be this season's goat. She didn't make any moves until it was too late, and she missed a chance to take a true power play earlier with Monica. The irony is that Monica pitched the exact thing Kimmi is trying to pitch now. Too little, too late. She doesn't really have connections on the jury. Kass might be the only person on that jury who was known to be friendly with her, but that doesn't mean she'll vote for her. No case at a FTC, which makes her a perfect goat. But in a season where Abi, the true perfect goat, was voted out before the finale, where does Kimmi finish?

 

Odds to win - 0% (Still a big goose egg)

 

6. Keith Nale - Unfortunately, I think Keith is the first to go. My reasoning is this: Only one person can presumably win the immunity challenge. It's going to be Spencer, Keith, Jeremy, or Kelley, depending on the challenge. If anyone but Spencer wins, Spencer is probably done. If Spencer does win, who goes home? Logic would dictate you get rid of the friendly challenge threat who could steal a vote or two at FTC, or the guy who has the best case at FTC. Jeremy has an idol though. So does Kelley. If both use their idols (has that even ever happened?), that would leave three people eligible. Kimmi, Tasha, and Keith. Of those three, who would everyone choose to get rid of? Only one of them is a threat to win a challenge. If they win a challenge, it means you can't win it. Safety will be important to Kelley, Spencer, and Jeremy, all of whom are huge threats to win the game. If he gets to the end, he doesn't really have a case. He's just there for the hell of it.

 

Odds to win - 0% (Spits)

 

-----

Odds to win

Jeremy - 50%

Spencer - 40%

Kelley - 9%

Tasha - 1%

Kimmi - 0%

Keith - 0%

 

Scores

 

Team Jenn - 130

Team Max - 124

Team Gordon - 119

Team Leggy - 145

 

Going into the final round, I have a commanding lead of 15 points.

[legacyme3]

I have a lot to say about the finale and next season, and not all of it is good, so don't read this if you loved this season unconditionally.

 

FINALE DISCUSSION

Spoiler

First off, I'm going to preface this with the statement that this is probably a top 5 season for me, behind Heroes v. Villains, Pearl Islands, Tocantins, and Cagayan in that order. Those four seasons all captured something incredibly special, and added to the Survivor lore in a way that is not dissimilar to that of Cambodia. Cambodia had so many firsts, that it was basically tailor made to be fantastic from the get go, and we have no one to thank but the producers for putting this ALL in line.

 

With all that said, this season has a lot of flaws, and some I think need to be addressed.

 

Camp life was... lacking this season. Outside of drama-filled Abi-Maria scenes, which were easily the low point of this season, there just wasn't a whole lot of flavor to the life at home, and it was largely focusing on strategy 24/7, if not challenges or tribal council. This isn't a "horrid" thing, but something I'm personally disappointed in. I know how strategy works, and we can skip one or two inane statements at tribal that are meaningless. For the longer challenges, better editing could be utilized to shorten it a bit more in some places. Removing some confessionals to focus on overall camp life would be appreciated. The only reason this season worked was because we knew who these players were, but some of them, like Kelly Wiglesworth, just weren't seen, and with 15 years between appearances, we know absolutely nothing about her.

 

The editing was extremely imbalanced. There were times it was superb, like episode one, but they crammed five different players down our throats this season. Savage, Stephen, Spencer, Jeremy, and Joe. In some episodes, we got as many as 7-10 confessionals from just one of those guys, which took up a ridiculous amount of time. We don't need to hear their every little thought, especially if their thoughts are obvious to us. We just need the important ones. This leads back into me wanting more flavor at camp. I love Spencer, but we used approximately 15 minutes this season on him saying exactly what he said in Cagayan.

 

My biggest gripe though, and what ultimately keeps this from being a #1 season for me is just how obvious the result was for so long, and how it was obvious Jeremy was going to go after the sympathy vote.

 

I feel for Jeremy. It's great that he has a family, and I am glad he has the money to help them out. He needed it more than Spencer or Tasha. He needed it more than anyone on that jury outside of maybe Terry (Danny Strong). All of that said, the number one argument he used to win the game had very very little to actually do with the game. It was a good play by him to fly under the radar and remove the family from the equation to make him a smaller target. But it irks me that after a season with so much strategy, and so much good gameplay, we're punished with a winner whose claim to fame was gaining sympathy at the end.

 

I don't think I'm being biased. I've had time to digest the finale, and I'm of the opinion that given what the edit told us, Spencer was the better overall player in the game, and truly grasped the idea of a second chance better than anyone out there. His biggest mistake was his furious panic at the F4 TC where he basically threatened Jeremy, and said he'd vote for Wentworth, which was highly unneeded. Jeremy was always taking Spencer, since Kelley would have beaten him at a FTC.

 

But Spencer did three things vital to his success in the game. The first thing he did was avoid being a target despite his challenge threat level. He was only really on the chopping block early on Ta Keo, and late game when Kelley was looking to remove either Jeremy or Spencer at the F6 (which literally anyone would have done). The second thing he did was improve his social play. He built bonds with many players in the game, and then had to go through with the arduous task of cutting someone off. He wasn't quite as cutthroat as Boston Rob in All-Stars, but I think he played a similar game, in a lot of respects. He built bonds, disposed of them when he needed to, and was the better "player" in the FTC, but ends up losing to the player the jury "hated the least" (although Jeremy is likable, whereas Amber really wasn't). Thirdly, and most importantly, he mastered the voting bloc strategy that was so central in this season. He took what is basically a new style of play, and mastered it instantly. He used the voting blocs better than anyone except maybe Wentworth.

 

When it comes to Jeremy, all I can think of is his social play, which, while good, wasn't so good that it should have been a 10-0-0 blowout at the final vote. I can understand Jeremy winning, he was my mid-season pick to win based on how he was going about things. I just wish it had been because of his smart play, and less because of the sympathy vote, which clearly swung certain players.

 

For me, that taints what is otherwise a nearly perfect season, one that will go down in the history of Survivor as one of the best of all time.

 

All of this said, where the fuck was Vytas? I didn't see him at the reunion. Is he really that bitter?

 

NEXT SEASON PREVIEW

Spoiler

Holy shit, someone might actually die next season. Looks absolutely fucking brutal. And the characters are just insane looking. Can't wait for BvBvB2

 

POWER RANKINGS FINAL SCORES

Spoiler

Team Jenn: 136

Team Max: 130

Team Gordon: 119

Team Leggy: 151

 

So I win this season. Too bad only the people here will ever know.

[legacyme3]

The new season is only a few weeks away... The new castaway videos are up too.

 

I have some favorites, but I've yet to make my pre-season rankings list.

[Kamau]

By the time we got to the Final 3, I didn't want any of them to win it. I was rooting for Spencer for a while but then he got annoying and repetitive, and the way he threatened Jeremy at the end soured all good feelings I had towards him. The gf and I both wanted Wentworth to win, and it was sad when she didn't win immunity.

 

The second Jeremy played the baby card I knew he was walking with the million. Sigh. But I'm glad Tasha didn't even get considered, because she really didn't do much.

 

Next season does look super brutal. I haven't kept up with teasers or anything past the initial trailer at the reunion (which I didn't watch, I just googled it) but I look forward to watching all the same. 

[legacyme3]

By the time we got to the Final 3, I didn't want any of them to win it. I was rooting for Spencer for a while but then he got annoying and repetitive, and the way he threatened Jeremy at the end soured all good feelings I had towards him. The gf and I both wanted Wentworth to win, and it was sad when she didn't win immunity.

 

The second Jeremy played the baby card I knew he was walking with the million. Sigh. But I'm glad Tasha didn't even get considered, because she really didn't do much.

 

Next season does look super brutal. I haven't kept up with teasers or anything past the initial trailer at the reunion (which I didn't watch, I just googled it) but I look forward to watching all the same. 

 

In some ways, I actually started pulling for Spencer more once he started flashing arrogance.

 

He was starting to look like he did in the teasers for Cagayan, and Douche!Spencer is honestly, probably more interesting (if less rootable) than Underdog!Spencer. I still was hoping he'd beat Jeremy, since I can't remember the last time a true "villain" has won the game. I mean, Tony won, but he was more of a buffoon than a villain, could we consider Tyson a villain? He was more strategic, but strategy doesn't turn you into a villain. In any case, it feels like it's been a long time since someone "despicable" won the game.

 

Once Jeremy uttered the baby bit, that's the moment where I lost interest. It became too obvious how things were going to go. The only intrigue left was if Spencer would get even one vote (it was never on the table for Tasha, who goes from a "challenge beast" in Cagayan, to a total goat in Cambodia).

 

Wentworth was my pick for much of the season, and I'm so glad she succeeded, she's one of the reasons I like all star seasons. Seeing players who didn't get much chance last time, and giving them a chance to redeem themselves to the fans is one of the many reasons I like them.

 

There were very few players who hurt their legacy in my eyes.

 

Vytas and Shirin didn't really have one to begin with, and so, were the perfect first two boots. PG got chased out of the game by Abi, and was really screwed by an unprecedented twist, so there's little to hold against her, she'd be great to see again, even though I doubt it happens. Jeff Varner may have boosted his stock the MOST out of anyone, and he was a pre-merge boot! He also may have paved the way for returnees from older seasons to return, since he's proved time away doesn't make you less entertaining, or less ready for the game. He had the right mindset, he just had bad luck, and got hurt. I still don't know why Monica was even voted on, so like Vytas and Shirin, she had no legacy to start with. Terry gets to leave as Captain America, the best exit he could have really had (Danny Strong!).

 

Woo is probably our first case of a hurt legacy. He goes from being #2 in Cagayan, needing to learn a vital lesson. He could have won Cagayan, had he taken the goat, and tossed "honor" to the side, for the sake of winning a game. In Cambodia, he was never on the ins, never knew what was going on, and never had his pulse on the game in general. He doesn't even make the merge, is the first of the Cagayan Four gone, and ultimately, just embarrassed himself.

 

Kass followed him out, but she actually improved her character despite an early exit. She's done enough to warrant being brought back a third time, and has evolved into one of the most complex and interesting characters we've seen. Kass did a masterful job of keeping Ponderosa relatively sane, from what we can see, and managed to keep the jury from being too bitter. It helps when one of the people at the FTC is one of the most likable guys ever, and has a baby on the way, but for the most part, there was little bitterness, and the little there was didn't affect the game.

 

It's tough to say if Savage hurt or helped his legacy. Much like Pearl Islands, he was knocked out by a twist. And much like Pearl Islands it was the "Outcasts" (the Witches Coven in this instance) that did him in. So he didn't really learn from his past season. Had he split the vote, it's probable he lasts a little longer. But as a character, few people were as dynamic as Savage, and he proved to be a great TV character, even if someone we didn't like. I want to say he actually helped his legacy, because now Savage's story has really come full circle. He started an alpha with heart, and determination, wanting to help lead his TRIBE to victory (Pearl Islands), and ends a bitter, jaded, caricature of who he was in Pearl Islands.

 

Wiglesworth's legacy is no doubt tarnished. On a season seemingly tailor made for her, there was very little about her that we can gleam from the season. She had maybe ten lines all season, was never a challenge threat, never helped her tribe with much, and was just a mediocre TV character. Now if what interviews said are to be believed, she was playing a LOT harder than what we were shown, and was friends with everyone, and had the jury vote locked up if she somehow made it to the end. But we saw nothing. Which means the editors didn't want us to see anything. Which means there probably wasn't much of actual interest there.

 

Ciera boosts her legacy. She continued her mantra of playing the game, and wowed us with great play from the bottom. I actually what Ciera could do with numbers, because, like Spencer, she is incredibly hard to stamp out. She's another person who played really well, and deserves a third game.

 

Fishbach... let's just skip that one. His story was so unusual, he doesn't really fit into this discussion.

 

Joe probably still, has the hearts of America. He entered a challenge beast, he leaves a challenge beast. He enters with no knowledge of how to play, he leaves with no knowledge how to play. Exact same player, exact same result, early-mid merge boot.

 

Abi got far, but definitely hurt her legacy. She came off as bitter, resentful, and quick to pull the trigger on literally anyone and everyone. It made for interesting TV at times, but as a person, I would never want to be in the same room as her, and her voice is grating beyond belief. She was a character I wanted to see this season, but we were overloaded with her too early, and I grew tired of her act.

 

I have nothing to say about Kimmi or Keith really. Keith continues to be Keith, and Kimmi disappoints me, majorly. She didn't start playing until it was too late, and when she did, pitched the same idea she denied earlier in the game (all girls alliance). Then when she goes against the grain, and tries to get out Jeremy and Spencer, she gets offended when Jeremy, Spencer, and Tasha stay strong, and force her out of the game. She chose her lot. She had no chance to get higher than fourth the moment she got to the Final Six with who she did. If she targets Jeremy when Abi is still there? It's plausible that Jeremy doesn't use his idol (he trusted Kimmi until F6), and goes home. That would give you a F6 of Kimmi, Kelley, Tasha, Abi, Keith, and Spencer. Spencer would be the easy target, and with how Kelley won the F6 challenge, I see no way Spencer makes it past F5. Left with who is left, Kelley is the only threat besides Keith to win a challenge.

 

In short, I theorize that if Kimmi turned on Jeremy a few days earlier, that she ends up F3/4, and Kelley Wentworth wins Second Chance. 

 

So I had a lot of negative things to say about Kimmi. That's a legacy ruined.

 

Kelley, as we covered, improved her legacy big time.

 

Spencer is harder to place. He probably hurt his. He goes from being the only threat to Tony winning Cagayan to being a literal goat at the end of Second Chance. His jury mismanagement was on point, compared to how well he managed the jury in Cagayan. He's actually a better player when he tries to keep emotion out of it, and doesn't build insanely deep bonds with everyone. Spencer improved as a person, but got worse as a player, despite his better standing.

 

Tasha hurt hers big time, as said, and Jeremy obviously improved his.

 

On the list of players to hurt their legacies, I have: Spencer, Kimmi, Abi, Wiglesworth, and Woo. Nearly everyone else stayed level, or improved their legacies.

 

I'll be putting up my power rankings for Survivor: Kaoh Rong in the next few days. I have a lot to say about what little we have for information

[legacyme3]

It's time, I guess, I'm not sure how to really do this original cast assessment/Power Rankings... since we don't know any of these people yet, outside of brief three minute look ins on their play style.

 

I guess I'll start by breaking down the tribes

Spoiler

Brains - Chan Loh

Aubry Bracco - She almost seems to be taking the "nerd" thing too far. I like her, and think she's the good kind of quirky, but I don't know how I feel about her chances of going far in this game... yet I have her going far. I don't think she's a physical threat. She's not going to win immunity. If she gets to the merge, people will have no reason to get rid of her. And that's a mistake, for as "nerdy" as she is, she seems very likable, and would be a threat to steal votes at a FTC, though be unlikely to win. I think I have her as a late merge boot, only booted because those left realize what a threat she is at the end, and how she isn't really a goat.

 

Debbie Wanner - She's a character. A character who has zero chance of winning the game, and that much seems evident. She's too full of herself, her voice is just annoying, and she doesn't seem to recognize that she is not built for this game. If the Brains lose early, I think she's the first boot from that group. She literally compares herself to Coach, and while that should make for good TV, the fact she's aspiring to be a story teller, and not a player, leads me to think she's going to bring the crazy too quick, too fast, and get herself taken out. Early boot, perhaps the first.

 

Joe Del Campo - Call me crazy, but I think this 72 year old man is actually a sleeper pick. He seems to have the perfect background to succeed in this game, and doesn't strike me as Phillip Shepherd Mk2. And physically? Dude, I wish I looked that good NOW. The big question is how he'll handle the elements, but the dude looks hard as nails. With how this season appears to be so deadly, I do find myself fearing for him. All things equal, I think he's an early merge boot. He's a bigger threat than he appears to be.

 

Liz Markham - I honestly barely remember who this is (I took a week off after watching the videos, so as to not be swayed by instant impressions). She's a quantitative strategist or something, but nothing in her interview struck me as a player who will manage to do much, or be a big presence on the season. She could get to the end as a goat, but I think it's more likely she's out in the pre-merge, or early post-merge. She's not a "threat" physically, but of the women on the Brains tribe, I think she's the biggest threat.

 

Neal Gottlieb - He's my favorite. He seems to have a level head, a good sense of humor, and a good outlook, on both life, and how to succeed. An ice cream man who doesn't like ice cream? That's one I can safely say I haven't heard before. I think he's going to gel well with everyone, on every tribe, he's not "threatening", but make no mistake, he appears to be a threat. Physically, he looks to be in decent shape, mentally, there's no question he's ready to play. He's my early winner pick right now (so I'm sorry, but you will put up a good fight and lose, much like Spencer in Cagayan, and Kelley in Cambodia), and I don't think there's anyone I like early as much.

 

Peter "Barack Obama" Baggenstos - Only brain I can't say I like. I think he's a fun guy, but he seems to be a little more full of himself than any of these other Brains. And his first thing is comparing his looks to Barack Obama. I honestly don't see it. And for his sake, he better hope no one on the other tribes notice, because I do think it would hurt him more than help him. I have him making it to somewhere in the mid-merge. He doesn't appear to be a physical threat, but will eventually be phased out in the interests of keeping Neil a smaller target (since I think Neil sells him out).

 

Beauty - Gondol

Anna Khait  - If Neal is my winner pick, Anna is a close second. That's not to say I think she finishes second, but I do think she'd be my second pick to win. If she makes FTC, she has a great chance to make a case, and if her video is any indication, she's going to play hard enough to justify being the winner, even this early. She could very easily flop. I don't think Beauty is a good tribe, and I don't think she has everyone in her corner early. She's going to play the long game, and needs to survive early to have a chance of making it far. She's either pre-merge, or a very late boot... or your winner.

 

Caleb Reynolds - Holy shit, I hate this guy. Like I feel bad, saying this, because I never wish pain on anyone, but I honestly kind of hope if there's a med-evac this season (not saying I want one to happen, I don't, they suck for so many reasons), that this is the guy it is used on. He needs to be knocked down 80 or so notches, and I can think of no more humbling experience than being evacuated from Survivor. Plus, I hate Big Brother, and would like it to be known how much tougher Survivor is. I don't think his social game will get him far in this game, and I think he rubs people the wrong way. He's either the first gone, or an early merge boot. Physically, he's a threat, and he's kind of arrogant, nobody wants to keep around a cancer.

 

Julia Sokolowski - I'm rather intrigued by her. And no, that's not just me thinking she's attractive. For someone of her age, she seems FAR more aware of how things go in Survivor. People have given me the Morgan comparison (from Cagayan), but I think it is inaccurate. Morgan strikes me as the kind of person who was cast entirely because of boobs. Julia strikes me as an actual fan of the show who applied. She has decent life experience which might help her. I do think the elements will be a bit tough on her (it will be tough on all though), but she's far more likely to handle it well than Morgan. I think I have her making the merge, I don't see any reason she'd be out early.

 

Michelle Fitzgerald - Each tribe has at least one person I don't remember at all, and Michelle is that person on Beauty. Her video didn't strike me as impressive. Her claim to fame is being yet another Parvati clone (oh goody, we have like 15 of those this season, apparently... other "sexy" women exist you know). She seems almost destined to be an early boot, or maybe she's a goat at the end, there's no other outcome plausible for her, it feels.

 

Nick Maiorano - Jesus, who decided it would be a good idea to put the two most self-centered dick bags of the season on the same tribe? I guess that's the point of being on the "beauty" tribe, but when we ran this format last time, LJ, Jeremiah, Brice, etc, proved you can be "beautiful" and not full of yourself. Nick admits in his own video how he doesn't take his own job seriously. He's a life coach who doesn't give a shit about people. If I was one of his clients, I would have used that video to take the opportunity to separate from him, and potentially sue for some form of malpractice. I can't see him going far, and honestly I think he's the first boot from this tribe. As bad as Caleb is, he is personable and charismatic. Nick is just a smug, conceited douche, who spent 90% of his video touching his hair. Early boot, I don't even see an outcome where he hits the merge.

 

Tai Trang - I love this man, and kind of hope he wins. He's hard to understand, but you can just tell he's in love with life. He's going to be the Keith of this season. He won't win, but I think he gets to the finale, and is only booted because everyone loves him. How could you vote this guy out?

 

Brawn - To Tang

Alecia Holden - I'm going to be entirely honest, this entire Brawn tribe looks like a snoozer. Alecia seems like a do-er, but she doesn't seem to have her mind set right. I think she ends up an early boot. 

 

Cydney Gillon - Not sure why, but I think she could be another sleeper pick. She is a pre-merge boot for me, entirely because of her physical background, If she hits the merge, she could go on a Tasha Fox (Cagayan) level run, and I think she's personable enough that if she got to the end, they could give her the million. She seems a little too sure of herself, but I think it's just overconfidence, and not full blown arrogance like some others.

 

Darnell Hamilton - Much like Tai, I hope he goes far. He seems fucking silly at heart, in an unintentional way. He's got the heart, desire, and the hunger, and those three things go a long way to winning the game. I think his social play is going to end up dooming him as of this moment, but he's the guy I feel we gained a lot of "info" on, but learned nothing about, if that makes sense. More will be clear after Episode 1. Think he gets far.

 

Jennifer Lanzetti - I like her! She beat drug addiction, got her degree, and has her own construction company. She also compared herself to Kim Spradlin, which is just what I wanted to hear. We don't want Parvatis. It took her two tries to win once. Kim won the only time she played. And did it in dominant fashion. She's street smart, and seems to understand how the game is played. She's in my current end-game as well, as one of my three or four winner candidates.

 

Kyle Jason - Scares the fuck out of me. Like, gives me a legitimate bad vibe. If I were out there, I'd make it my priority to get rid of him, right away. He even compares himself to Russell Hantz. I don't like guys who can be evil to the core, and smile to your face, unless they are Rob Mariano. There's a difference between being the Godfather and Satan. And Jason is Satan. Early boot, since I don't think anyone falls for his shit.

 

Scot Pollard - Of all the former athletes to play, I think he has the best chance to succeed. He wasn't a household name like Jeff Kent or Cliff Robinson or John Rocker, so guys aren't likely to think "Oh, yeah, this guy was definitely in the NBA or MLB"... but he says he plans not to hide his identity either... I think of all the athletes to play, he knows how to keep the target off his back. I don't think he gets far, maybe to the merge. His height is something he'll never be able to hide, and people are going to be intimidated. 

 

Next, my early predictions for the boot order

Spoiler

1. Neil

2. Jennifer

3. Anna

4. Tai

5. Aubrey

6. Darnell

7. Peter

8. Liz

9. Joe

10. Julia

11. Scot

12. Caleb

13. Cydney

14. Kyle

15. Alecia

16. Michelle

17. Nick

18. Debbie

 

As for a Power Rankings, I don't have a lot to go on, so we'll just keep this one brief. All things I said in the Tribe Breakdown apply to the name.

POWER RANKINGS EP 1

Spoiler

1. Tai Trang - Come on, no one is going to kill the fun times entirely on the first day. He's going to get far.

2. Scot Pollard - Strength will keep him in the game for now.

3. Neal Gottlieb - Just don't think anyone will see him as a threat, and go another route.

4. Darnell Hamilton - He'll stay low-key, hopefully.

5. Peter Baggenstos - Think he'll ally with Neal just in the sake of having someone reliable, since the only other male on his tribe is Joe, and there will ALWAYS be fear of a woman's alliance.

6. Jennifer Lanzetti - No real reason to think she's first on the chopping block if Brawn loses.

7. Julia Sokolowski - No real reason to think she's first on the chopping block if Beauty loses.

8. Liz Markham - No real reason to think she's first on the chopping block if Brains loses.

9. Kyle Jason - This is where we hit danger territory, anyone here or below are my prime picks to get voted out. He's just too much like Russell.

10. Aubrey Bracco - Might overplay or annoy people too early to get a chance to play.

11. Anna Khait - I hope she goes far, but she's prone to overplaying, if her career is any indication.

12. Cydney Gillon - Safety bet, in case Brawn loses, since I don't think Alecia or Jennifer goes home, and a girl has a good chance of going home.

13. Joe Del Campo - He's 70 years old. He's never going to be above the bottom 5.

14. Alecia Holden - In the end, I just know nothing about her. The lack of hype has me worried... this is a meta pick.

15. Michelle Fitzgerald - I just don't know who she is.

16. Caleb Reynolds - Please?

17. Nick Maiorano - Please be the other person voted out in the premier?

18. Debbie Wanner - If Brains loses, I think she's guaranteed to go home.

[legacyme3]

So, that was something.

 

EP 1 Spoilers

Spoiler

OK, first off, great episode, had basically everything, and it was a fantastic showcase of every character, for the most part.

 

But let's start with the elephant in the room, losing Darnell sucks. He was a truly interesting character who was seemingly voted out just because of the goggles thing, which really irks me. I'm glad the first episode doesn't count for points this time around, because losing Darnell hurts big time.

 

Right now, I loathe Caleb, Nick, and Debbie, as expected, and I love Tai, Neal, and Kyle is starting to warm on me.

 

Now for my power rankings, best of luck to me.

 

Spoiler

1. Neal Gottlieb - Of all the Brains, he seems the most aware of the shortcomings of his own tribe. If the Brains lose, I think he'll be proactive enough to avoid being the top guy booted. He's a smart guy, and we got a good showcase of that in this episode. His one thing to look out for will be overconfidence. He might think he has a good foursome, but in this early stage, it just takes three to go to rocks and ruin someone's plan. That could be enough to convince either of the others to flip.

 

2. Kyle Jason - He, like Neal, put himself in a good position early. He's aligned with Scot Pollard, which was just about the smartest thing he could do. Scot is almost certainly making it close to the merge, just in the name of challenge strength, and Kyle is attaching himself to someone you can't get rid of until later. Once you get to the merge, Kyle isn't going to be the first target... it's going to be Scot. He made a good move, trying to cut Alecia, and then flipping back to take out Darnell. Alecia was the weaker player, and voting her out would have helped, but by taking out Darnell, he took out a long term likability threat. Beauty would do well to take notes.

 

3. Scot Pollard - Similarly to how Kyle set himself up well, his partner in crime, Scot, did so as well. He's not the smartest (He seems to be unable to count the members on his small tribe), but he did make one good move... revealing himself as a former NBA player. The mistake so many athletes make is they lie. Jeff Kent is the best example of an athlete who got relatively far. The players, guaranteed, don't care a ton about the money factor, that's why he was safe, and Darnell, who was poor as a pauper, was voted out. They care about honesty, and safety. And if he's going to be upfront about his career, they will believe him, when he says they are safe. Once he hits the merge, he's a big target, but that'll be because of his size, not his money.

 

4. Anna Khait - She had a fantastic first episode too. She is now in the loop about everything, and has effortlessly put the spotlight on Tai for his idol hunting. The girls seem to want to stick together, and she seems to get along with the guys as well. As long as she keeps a cool head (poker player!), she'll get far. She's shown social skills, and she's not inept in a challenge, as shown so far, anyways. She has a ways to go before I put her in my winners pool, but I think she has the potential to get there, for sure.

 

5. Jennifer Lanzetti - This is a meta-pick of a kind. The fact she was able to overcome that nasty worm in the ear bit has shown one thing vital... that she can fight through even debilitating pain for the sake of the game. She still has rain issues, but she had a worm in her ear canal. What's a little rain at this point? She even said as much when she got the worm out, that she feels like she did before all of that. I think she's in for the long haul.

 

6. Michelle Fitzgerald - I still don't think I know who this really is, but she didn't make waves, and on her tribe, there are about four people in more trouble than her. She's playing low-key, which is something you need to do in the pre-merge. I have very little to say about her, though.

 

7. Peter Baggenstos - Barack Obama isn't playing a great game so far, but he seems to have reliable allies, and that's enough for now. Neal doesn't have any reason to sell him out, and the girls probably aren't going to vote him out over a Debbie unless he goes full retard and tries to constantly joke about being Obama. He has the ability to get far, and he probably has the right people for it...

 

8. Aubrey Bracco - She won herself MAJOR brownie points with her challenge performance, and might just become a darkhorse. She was an emotional wreck early, which concerned me, but she muscled up and provided when her team needed her most. She basically singlehandedly saved the Brains tribe from repeating the past. That goes a long way in this early stage of the game.

 

9. Caleb Reynolds - As much as I hate to say it, he's probably safe for now. He didn't make waves and no one really seems to care about his BB past. He isn't exactly winning the tribe over, but he has something going with Tai and Nick, and the girls seem to be more suspicious of the other guys, honestly.

 

10. Julia Sokolowski - For someone so young, she's definitely playing a low key game, early, anyways. She was able to play a part in unearthing Caleb's past, and while he might not like it, it's definitely stuck a feather in her cap as a reliable informant to her allies. That'll keep her around, at the very least, for now.

 

11. Liz Markham - She didn't really blow me away in the first episode, and that's not a shock, with the focus on Brawn and Beauty more than anything. Once Brains loses a challenge, Liz will be shown more. This is a safety pick, just because she's too underexposed.

 

12. Joe Del Campo - Bad signs for Joe, early. He and Debbie have been ousted as the "old" people on the tribe. That's bad for Joe, but worse for Debbie, considering she also has the annoying card. All Joe has to do, next week, is work hard, and show that he's willing to be a team player. He's not in the four, and nothing he does probably gets him there, but all he has to do is be in the five, and get to the merge/swap, and work his way up. His career was in the FBI. He'll find a way.

 

13. Tai Trang - I don't think he's gone, but he's in the danger zone right now. Being ousted for looking for an idol, being an 80MPH kind of guy, a whirlwind, both things are going to hurt him. He also doesn't "fit in" like the others in the tribe. Let's be honest, for a minute, the women are all drop dead gorgeous, and while neither Nick/Caleb is my cup of tea because of their personalities, they do have attractive faces/bodies. Tai is over 50, and is beautiful on the inside, something none of the others can claim as much as he can. His inner beauty makes him a fan favorite, but it also makes him the black sheep. A target.

 

14. Nick Maiorano - I think the heat is off him as well as Caleb, unfortunately, both have integrated themselves into their tribes rather well. He's still the absolute worst, but he also hasn't been as bad as he was shown to be in his video yet. It's plausible he's like Cagayan Spencer, and just played up that part of his personality to get through casting. We'll see.

 

15. Cydney Gillon - She's done nothing wrong, but she was closest to Darnell, who is gone now. If Brawn loses again, it's between her and Alecia, probably. Cydney might have the upperhand due to challenge strength, but as we saw with Darnell, all it takes is one thing, to become the primary target. Cydney would do well to watch her back.

 

16. Alecia Holden - Nope. Nothing to say about this waste of space. Pretty much the most useless player this season.

 

17. Debbie Wanner - Has already found a way to ingratiate herself to everyone. She's tried playing know it all (and failed), tried being friendly (failed), and tried getting into a comfortable plurality alliance (failed). I will not be sad to see her voted off. And if Brains loses, I think she's the first one out.

[Kamau]

What! It started? I'll have to check On Demand

[legacyme3]

Yeah, it started the other night. Ninety minute premier (counting ads)

[legacyme3]

That episode was absolutely infuriating.

 

Spoiler

 

It was a good episode, but that stupid dumbass Alecia is still in the game, while two of my pre-season favorites are gone... I think I'm beginning to understand why they showed Cambodia after Worlds Apart, instead of this season. Wouldn't do to have three really disappointing seasons back to back to back (SJDS and WA both sucked).

 

This has been a fun season, but I can see it getting boring post-merge if people like Alecia are still there, and Neal, Joe, and Tai are all voted out before the mergee. Like, if those three are voted out, I don't think there'd be a single player left I'd like.

 

Anyway, for Power Rankings this week...

Spoiler

1. Neal Gottlieb - If the Brains lose, he's literally the only person I think is safe. Joe could be targeted for his age, Debbie for being annoying, Liz for challenge strength, Peter for being arrogant and playing too many sides, or Aubrey for breaking down again. Neal has so far been shown to be level headed, and might be the most stable person in this game. That could change if Debbie/Joe angle to take him out, but he's shown to be the most physical player left, and was the only one carrying his team's log once they hit the water. Peter may have won the challenge in the end, but Neal was the only trying to get them to the block.

 

2. Kyle Jason - I think, short of a med-evac, he's sticking around. He was on the chopping block last week, but survived relatively easily, without getting a single vote. Scot is firmly in his corner, and Cydney is in his corner. Alecia is weak, and if they lose next week, it seems relatively certain she'll be the primary target. Only way he's gone is if Scot turns on him, but despite being on the wrong side of the vote, I don't think Scot did it out of intent to go against Kyle.

 

3. Cydney Gillon - I think she's relatively safe next week. She was the only one not to be a target last week, outside of Scot Pollard, and I think it is pretty safe to call her safe. She is the strongest woman out there, and while that makes her a big threat when the merge hits, the Brawn tribe needs to be more concerned with making it to the merge. If they vote her out, to keep Alecia, then they are well and truly, screwed, and won't make it there.

 

4. Anna Khait - You know it's tough early when I could see her going home next week. She's played very well so far, and might be the first professional poker player to have a chance of getting far, but to do that, she needs to continue to slide under the radar, and let the guys be themselves. Tai keeps digging himself a hole, Nick is an arrogant fuck, and Caleb is bound to piss someone off soon. The Beauty Tribe girls are all relatively safe, in my belief.

 

5. Julia Sokolowski - Read the above. She's in the same position as Anna, but might be more prone to a nervous outbreak due to her age and inexperience relative to the cast. As long as she sticks with the girls, she'll get to the merge, no problem.

 

6. Michele Fitzgerald - I don't know much about her, so she's the lowest of the Beauty Trifecta. If any of the three were to go home, I'd bank on it being this one, just because she hasn't had a whole ton of build-up yet. Feels like the unexplored characters just get the token elimination episode.

 

7. Tai Trang - He put himself into decent shape last week, by finding the idol clue... and he knows where the idol is. It's just a matter of getting to it. He might still be the prime target on beauty, but if he gets that idol, all bets are off, and I think he gets it. He knows he's on the block, and that will make him hungry. I think he finds a way to get it, if not now, then soon.

 

8. Caleb Reynolds - He's charismatic, I'll give him that. Tai and him have a weird bro-mance going on, and I think the girls like him enough to keep him over Nick, should they lose (although strangely, they appear to be the strongest so far). He works hard, and he's their biggest physical threat. Beauty isn't about to let that go for no reason.

 

9. Peter Baggenstos - Obama definitely earned some brownie points last week, much like how Aubrey did in the first challenge. He probably bought himself more time if he was on the block, and if he wasn't, even better. He still needs to watch his back, because he looks like he's trying to play both sides. If Neal and the girls and/or Debbie/Joe get wise to it, then he could be their mutual enemy.

 

10. Aubrey Bracco - Read above for the most part. She's probably, all told, the safer pick due to how likable she is, but watch what happened to Darnell. In a week one can go from the GOAT to the goat, and Aubrey would appear to be the most likely to do so..

 

11. Scot Pollard - I'm beginning to hate him, but in his defense, he's strong. Meatheads tend to get to the merge. Meatheads also don't have many brains. He's the guy who once said "Do Drugs kids". So you can tell he's not exactly bright. Think he's safe, but wouldn't be shocked to see Kyle cut him loose if he (Kyle) starts thinking like Tony.

 

12. Joe Del Campo - He might be in a little trouble because of his age, but in my heart of hearts, I believe if the Brains lose, and they choose to go after the old people, they'll keep the more useful of the two, as well as the more physically able. Joe is only really this low because of his age. He could be med-evac'd, with how brutal this season is touted to be. I wouldn't hold it against him if he was.

 

13. Nick Maiorano - Unfortunately, I think he survives another week. He's still the most likely Beauty to go, but his tribe is dominant, and could get to the merge without losing a single member if there isn't a tribal swap (who are we kidding, there's going to be one). I think that would be best for him, honestly. There are people on other tribes he could probably have a better chance of bonding with.

 

14. Elizabeth Markham - I don't know why, but she strikes me as the most likely person on the tribe to pull a "Lanzetti" and go from being in good shape to shooting herself in the foot and out of the game. From now on, I'm just going to assume it could happen every week, and choose a person likely to hurt themselves. Liz is this week's "Lanzetti" pick.

 

15. Alecia Holden - Still useless as a poopy flavored lollipop.

 

16. Debbie Wanner - She didn't participate in the last challenge, meaning she has to participate in the next one. Unfortunately for her, she's the most likely person on her tribe to say "I can do it" and then be unable to do it. My case in point is how she claims to be the master of starting fires, then fails to get anything. Her voice is grating, she's annoying her tribe mates, and she presumably brings nothing to the table.

 

RANKINGS

Team Gordon - 2

Team Shirin - 6

Team Leggy - 5

Team Nick - 10

 

So of course, only one person in the contest predicted she had much a shot of going home, and it's the only person on this list who thought PG would be out super early last season too. (I beat him last season by like 40ish points, it was a blowout). I'm close to Gordon and Shirin, so my main goal was met. We were all blindsided by that vote out.

[legacyme3]

That was an intriguing episode

 

Spoiler

And the string of characters I like being voted out continues. I liked Liz. I figured she'd shoot herself in the foot.

 

POWER RANKINGS #4

Spoiler

1. Neal Gottlieb - This episode was a great litmus test of who Neal can be. He was able to keep a cool head despite being the target of Peter and Liz, and having no reason to trust Debbie and Joe, and not only that, but managed to finagle the earlier 2-2-2 split (that would have resulted in 2 votes for Aubrey/Neal/and one of Liz/Peter) into an entirely different 2-2-2 split (where both of Peter and Liz were targeted, and his name didn't even come up once. Further still, he had a great underrated move that some may not have noticed. When Probst called for a hidden immunity idol, Neal looked at his bag. You can tell Peter is going to have a good long think about that. His challenge performance is superb, and he was neck and neck with Caleb until after they climbed the wall, that's when the Brains fell apart. The Beauty tribe is a great team. The Brains are not. He just needs to stick with Aubrey, and play on Peter's arrogance, and he'll make it to the merge unscathed.

 

2. Kyle Jason - Has a hidden immunity idol. Has Cydney and Scot Pollard at his back. Has an easy target in Alecia. He's going nowhere. Even if all those things weren't true, he's the main reason the Brawn tribe won immunity and didn't have to vote out Alecia (damn it). There will come a time to bump him, but barring a medical emergency (next week's previews seem to indicate SOMEONE is evac'd), I think he's safe next week.

 

3. Anna Khait - This is going to be a boring string of 3, but the girls on the Beauty tribe are solid. I don't think there's any way they vote against each other, which means that unless they go to rocks (something Caleb won't risk) or a hidden idol is played for their primary target (Nick), that all three are about as safe as you can be in Survivor.

 

4. Michele Fitzgerald - May as well read the above. The Beauty girls are going to be a threat in this game if the entire Beauty tribe makes it to the merge. Having three makes you a big target, but it also makes you a very valuable swing, early, especially if no one sees you as a physical threat.

 

5. Julia Sokolowski - Hey, have we heard this before? Because these girls are all pretty much safe at the time being. Julia might be in the most danger, early, of the three, but I don't think the difference is all that significant.

 

6. Cydney Gillon - Her chances take a hit. Last week, she was with Alecia when she found the idol. She did the smart thing, and told Kyle and Scot, but they could just as easily deem her untrustable, given how she was with Alecia in the first place. If they open the door for Alecia, she WILL step in, and take out Cydney. I think she's pretty safe, but it's not as good a position as it was for her a week ago.

 

7. Aubrey Bracco - I might regret putting her this high, but one of the people targeting her is now gone. That has to be a good sign, right? She seems to, at the least, have a good attitude, and Debbie likes her. If one of Aubrey/Neal were to go, I think the only reason Neal would stay over her is because of Peter and Joe, and Neal's challenge strength. The biggest thing with Aubrey is that she's clearly a brain. Her name, like Neal's, was on the chopping block, and she didn't panic.

 

8. Scot Pollard - Again, taking a huge risk with this, as Scot could just as easily go home as Alecia, but his buddy Kyle has an idol. And Kyle might be willing to use it to advance himself in the game, even if it means using it on Scot, rather than himself. His primary goal is clear. Get rid of Alecia. If he even thinks Cydney might betray him, then he might use the idol and get out Alecia or Cydney, rather than lose his buddy. All that said though, Scot "is" a threat, physically, and maybe Kyle wants a more level playing field at the merge.

 

9. Debbie Wanner - This could cost me the season, but I think Debbie does better than she should, at this point. If she's gotten through a tribal council without even being a target, then it shows nobody thinks she's a threat (she isn't, yet). I was thinking earlier, her poor play may be just to catch everyone off guard, and her moves at tribal seem to indicate this is the truth. I think she's a better player than we gave credit for. Peter and Liz saw her as a goat, and Neal/Aubrey presently see her as a friend thanks to her looking out for them. Debbie just won some good friends, and should at least make it to the merge, barring a horrid IC performance (dollars to donuts, she sits out).

 

10. Nick Maiorano - If beauty loses, he's in trouble. The girls dislike him, and Tai has the idol. The good news for him, and the only reason I don't have him lower than Tai, is because of the medical emergency scare. If someone is going to get med-evac'd, my bet is on the guy climbing trees half-naked, not the guy lounging by the water going on and on about how perfect he supposedly is.

 

11. Tai Trang - I'm not sure I think he's the med-evac (if there is one), but what I "do" know is that Tai has an idol. That's great and all, if he knows how to use it. He's shown an odd lack of gameplay awareness for someone who has so much social awareness. He might have sympathy on his side, but because of the preview, I have to be wary with Tai, even if it's a red herring.

 

12. Caleb Reynolds - If any beauty is med-evac'd, I'm going to take my bets on this guy here. Not only has he been playing this game like a bat out of hell, but they've been struggling at camp, to the point they killed one of their chickens for sustenance. Winning challenges takes energy, and Caleb is dominating these challenges. Similar to how Joe did in the past two seasons, Caleb is the most likely to push himself past the point of reason and get himself hurt. Even without the med-evac possibility... he's a triple threat player. Until now, he was only a double threat. He had the social skill, and the challenge prowess, but not the strategy. Now, he's shown some level of strategy.

 

13. Peter Baggenstos - It doesn't look good for him. He's lost his only ally, and everyone on the tribe admits he's sketchy. The fact they kept him means they perceive him to be the lesser of two threats to their tribe unity. That might be a mistake, if they get to the merge without a chance to cut one more, but for now, Peter is public enemy #1 on the Brains tribe.

 

14. Alecia Holden - The Poopy-Flavored lollipop survives, as she fails to snag an idol from Kyle!

 

15. Joe Del Campo - He's a billion years old. If anyone's getting med-evac'd, it's him. If the med-evac is just a red-herring, then it's probably one of the above three.

 

RANKINGS

Team Gordon - 15

Team Shirin - 20

Team Leggy - 19

Team Nick - 22

 

So Team Nick takes a bit of a hit, as his lead falls to only two, over Shirin and three over myself.

 

Gordon has always been bad at the game, and continues to be.

[legacyme3]

Episode 4 Spoilers and Episode 5 Preview Spoilers

Spoiler

So, losing Caleb really sucks.

 

I feel the need to talk about this at length, because I entered this season absolutely hating him for his character on Big Brother.

 

But as a Survivor, Caleb Reynolds was more humble, more fun, and in general, just a great player. Losing him at all sucks. Losing him this way sucks even more. You have to think he's a lock to return, given the respect Jeff showed him as he left, and how he has shown his own interest in returning.

 

Caleb Reynolds is a great Survivor. Beastmode Cowboy was a stupid fuck. I think there's an easy place to cut the line at where the two lie.

 

With that aside, next week we have a Tribe Swap. And we have 13 left, I think. How on earth are they going to make it fair?

 

POWER RANKINGS #5

Spoiler

1. Neal Gottlieb - Good fucking luck picking anyone to be safe next week. We know literally nothing. We don't know how the tribes will be divided, who is on each tribe, or how people will react to each other. Neal and Kyle could be best buddies or better enemies. An idol is probably out there, maybe even on each camp with the switch. Who ends up with a chance to find one? I'm going to say Neal is the safest bet. His only time "in trouble" he managed to get way with exactly zero votes against him. He's a physical player, but not a physical "threat". He knows how to read a room, and he's played everyone perfectly thus far. His biggest danger is going to be ending up on a tribe with Peter and a majority alliance, say from Beauty. Because in that case, it becomes 50/50 as to who stays and who goes. Ultimately, I think he's going to win this game, still, but even if he doesn't I think he makes the merge.

 

2. Tai Trang - He's easily the most likable player left in the game. He may have been in trouble on Beauty, had they gone to Tribal, but with a swap, he's likely to end up with a chance to make new friends. Losing Caleb was a humanizing moment for him. We got to see so much of his love and appreciation for those he considers friends, and we know someone saw that. If he ends up with someone like a Neal or an Aubrey, he'll bond with them, I think. Both are quirky enough to gel with him, instantly. He also has an idol, so he has an ace up his sleeve if he's not feeling safe.

 

3. Kyle Jason - I actually don't feel too confident he'll gel with whoever he ends up with, but he does have an idol, and I think it makes him safe for at least the next tribal. He's been shown to anger easily, and he even admitted as such. I think this is a bad mix for someone on a new tribe. If he ends up in the minority, he's going to find himself public enemy #1. Cut the head off the snake and all that.

 

4. Anna Khait - So far, she's stayed out of the way, and had a majority of which was unbreakable. But now she's almost certainly going to lose one, if not both, of her allies. She has shown the best ability so far, to gel with anyone out of the three Beauties, so I have to put her the highest. But fuck all, she could be voted out unanimously. Such is the Tribe Swap.

 

5. Aubrey Bracco - This is where I'm cutting off the "safe" list for next week. Aubrey is a delightful person who brings something fun to the table that is needed post-swap. I think that alone keeps her in the game. If not that, then her surprising challenge strength will at least keep her in over the other girls. Her biggest enemy is going to be adapting to the change. We saw her melt-down once. She could just as easily do it again in an unfamiliar setting.

 

6. Michele Fitzgerald - I feel like we still know nothing about her, at all. That's dangerous, since it points to a "sudden boot" episode. And the tribe swap is a good time for one, since it's going to be rather random anyways. But I think there's more to her than meets the eye, so...

 

7. Julia Sokolowski - Props to her for getting this far. They haven't gone to Tribal, so it's not like she's had a chance to be voted out, but she's playing well, and getting along with literally everybody, it seems. She, like the other Beauties (minus Nick) was devastated to see Caleb med-evac'd. She's going to need to work to get into the safe zone, but her personality is conducive to success... Unless she ends up with a Kyle or Scot.

 

8. Joe Del Campo - I'm taking a major risk here, but despite his age, I think he sticks around. He's been shown to be likable, and he knows how to moderate his energy, as he was one of the lucky few not to collapse in a heap and die in the RC. He's compassionate, and puts people above the game. I don't think he's here to win, honestly, and if anyone catches wind of that, they'll definitely keep him around.

 

9. Cydney Gillon - A tribe swap benefits her greatly. If they lose another challenge, it'd be Scot or her, and I think Kyle is closer to Scot than her. Getting to the swap gives her a chance to start over with a less dysfunctional group, and maybe connect with a majority alliance (who would take her in as a single number). She's in a good position to be a powerful swing, if she gets lucky with her landing place.

 

10. Peter Baggenstos - Nobody needed the swap more than him. He's on the outs on his tribe despite strong performances, and he's shown that he's done with them. Problem is, I don't think his poor placement in the tribe was a result of circumstance, his arrogance is going to put anyone off. To survive three more days, he either needs another challenge win, or he needs to tone down his personality.

 

11. Debbie Wanner - She's played well to this point, surprisingly, and she has the cut-throat playing style that you need to do well. But she recently went down in a challenge and that has to concern people. In addition, she's perceived as annoying. She hasn't been horrible in challenges, but she's got to be the oldest woman out there, and that is not to her benefit. She got her humanizing moment about her children. Next would presumably be the fall.

 

12. Nick Maiorano - If you look up arrogant in a dictionary, you will see him shaking hands with Peter. Both players have no handle on the game, as of yet, but Peter has shown us more than Nick has. His douchey nature has already turned 3 people against him on the Beauty tribe, and they were the most likely to understand him. If he ends up with a bad group, including a majority of the current Beauty tribe, he may be sunk.

 

13. Scot Pollard - His best chance of surviving is to swap with Kyle, but that's at best a 50/50 proposition. Even if he does, it's no guarantee he's safe. He's shown to be a negative person, and has bullied Alecia relentlessly. He needs a win next week, but I don't think he's long for the game in any case. Doubt he hits the merge.

 

RANKINGS

Team Gordon - 38

Team Shirin - 39

Team Leggy - 45

Team Nick - 41

 

I am the big mover this week, thanks to a lucky break on the Caleb med-evac

[legacyme3]

Spoiler

Well I should have known Anna was leaving. It's always the players I like, this season haha

 

POWER RANKINGS #6

Spoiler

1. Neal Gottlieb - He is in literally the best position. He has an idol, he is on the stronger tribe, and he has an ally in Debbie. I wouldn't trust her, if I was him, and start putting in plans to cut her off before she becomes too big a threat. He just needs to ally with either the Beauties or the Brawn tribe. Once they get to tomorrow's challenge, they'll see how Anna was voted off. The Beauties will know they lost a number. Alliances need to shift. If Kyle finds out Neal has an idol? They could combine their idol. In any case, all Neal has to do is flash that idol, and he's safe. I don't think he'll need to, though, the person who sees him as the biggest threat is on the other tribe.

 

2. Kyle Jason - Who in the world is going to vote him out right now? He's a key swing vote on his new tribe, and he has an idol. It would take grade A stupidity, a loss, and more grade A stupidity for Kyle to be voted out. He's tight with Cydney, and has his pick of where to be. He could get overconfident, but man, you have to like his chances of getting to the merge right now.

 

3. Tai Trang - I was nervous last week, despite him having an idol, but I think he's actually safe. He's made friends with everyone on his tribe, and he has shown incredible game awareness. He may have made a mistake telling Scot about the idol, since it gives him a ton of power, but Tai looks like he's looking out for number one, anyways. There's no guarantee he'll follow Scot blindly. Despite Beauty being the obvious target, Anna was taken out, not him. If they lose again, I think Julia will frankly be the bigger target. Even if not, idol.

 

4. Cydney Gillon - Like Kyle, she is in a perfect position, a key swing vote early on. Nobody has a reason to vote her out, especially when she does her job in challenges. She just has to lay low and let everyone come to her, right now. She's not in any trouble.

 

5. Aubrey Bracco - She might be in the best position of the three brains on her tribe. She hasn't ruffled any feathers, and is tied for the majority. Peter could easily turn on her, but it appears as if Scot and Tai are not trusting of him. Julia has yet to weigh in, but I can't imagine she's going to want to partner with him. She's not 70 years old, she isn't the greatest schemer, and she isn't a former member of Brawn or Beauty. She's in the majority, and she has made herself useful.

 

6. Joe Del Campo - Here's a risky pick. He's a great guy, and he seems ready to go to war with Peter. He's been extremely helpful around camp, and he has held up extremely well in these conditions. As long as he doesn't get too out of control, he will be fine, next week, barring a medical emergency, because who knows?

 

7. Michele Fitzgerald - We still do not know a whole lot about her. Which is very concerning. I want to say she'll get further, but from this point on, it has to be assumed she's going to get a boot out of nowhere. I'm going to be placing her in the bottom half from now on.

 

8. Debbie Wanner - She might risk overplaying, she thinks much much too highly of herself. She perceives herself as the brains of the operation, but the real star is Neal. She can still be grating, and Kyle/Cydney may opt to go the way of overall team strength. Neal has proven himself to be one of the single most useful members of the tribe in just about everything. Debbie is much more expendable.

 

9. Julia Sokolowski - She didn't get to bond with anyone this week, and she suffered alone on a sort of exile. She is about to enter a bad situation, where they are seemingly targeting the members of the Beauty tribe. And even worse, it appears her one known ally, Tai, has flipped, to go for himself. He could use the idol on her if it furthers his game, but it is highly unlikely, if he didn't do it last week.

 

10. Scot Pollard - I'm not buying him being a nice guy, now that he's with Tai. He is the only Brawn on the tribe and that may make him a swing vote, but he's also an imposing target with the merge coming up soon. I'd get rid of him, but he may be safe for now. If he gets to the merge, he has one bit of knowledge no one else has, where two idols are. He is the only person who can orchestrate a super idol situation. That makes him valuable to keep around.

 

11. Nick Maiorano - Even his new tribemates seem to think he is fake. I am pretty sure Kyle picked up on it, and Cydney probably did too. I can't see the Brains teaming up with him. If they lose, I think he's the obvious first target.

 

12. Peter Baggenstos - Nobody trusts him. He was pitched tonight as a blindside target. Tai may have chosen to go the route of keeping his idol, but the fact of the matter is that Peter is on the outside of his own alliance, only skating by because the Brains are willing to put up with him, for now. Next week, he is on the hotseat, and I have no reason to see it as a red herring preview.

 

RANKINGS

Team Gordon - 47

Team Shirin - 48

Team Leggy - 49

Team Nick - 43

 

The race at the top is very close

[legacyme3]

POWER RANKINGS #7

Spoiler

 

1. Cydney Gillon - A grasp at a straw here, but I don't think she's as big a target as her two Brawn alliance mates. She's strong, but she's not as strong as Kyle or Scot, both of whom are bigger targets. Kyle has an idol, but I don't know if he'd use it to protect anyone but himself. Luckily, Cydney probably doesn't need it. She's shown the ability to form relationships with others.

 

2. Neal Gottlieb - This may seem like a low ranking, especially since he's still my winner pick, but I think a guy like him is actually the perfect target for the merge. Now that Caleb is gone, he's the closest thing to a triple threat player. He's sneaky and intelligent, he has played a decent social game, and his challenge prowess has been incredible. He's not only beasting on puzzles, but he's also been surprisingly strong physically.

 

3. Julia Sokolowski - Last week, she showed something important, the ability to adapt to a situation. She came in as the easy boot but managed to wait things out and heard everyone out. She managed to help swing a Peter boot, and as a result, I think her winner chances have shot up dramatically. She's played a hard game for someone so young, and I'm hoping she continues.

 

4. Kyle Jason - I'm not sure if he stick around much longer. Now that he's not on a winning tribe, and has to compete for himself, I'm not sure he has the skills to win the immunities he'll need to keep himself safe. His best bet is to latch onto an alliance with his brawn teammates and anyone strong to use as a shield like Jeremy, last season. He still has an idol, and has the best chance of forming a super idol, if Scot tells him.

 

5. Tai Trang - Good luck picking someone to go home on Wednesday. The merge is here, and just like with merges past, they can be highly unpredictable. It's like the tribal swap, but worse, because you now HAVE to consider the individual dynamic. Is a group more likely to take out a challenge beast or a player with a killer social game that could win at the end? 

 

6. Michele Fitzgerald - I still have no idea who this is, and that bothers me. She smells so much like a goat right now that I just have no reason to believe she's voted out unless we get the classic boot episode where a nobody gets tons of development only to leave. She's this low for safety.

 

7. Aubrey Bracco - She's going to need to start moving. And by that, I mean on from Joe. Joe is sabotaging her game, even if she doesn't realize it yet, or him, for that matter. She's done well to get this far, but she needs to reconnect with Neal and especially Debbie if she wants to have any chance of making it further. Scot, Tai, and Julia all know exactly how Aubrey is, and they have a chance to get her out.

 

8. Debbie Wanner - Much like with Aubrey, she's getting to the merge and I think she's lucky to be here. She needs to reconnect with Aubrey in particular to have staying power. The people on her remade tribe know she's playing hard, and it is often the players playing the hardest who are unsuspecting of the blindside.

 

9. Joe Del Campo - He's old, man. He's done well to last this long, but he has to be feeling the strain. And now it gets tougher, since he has to win on his own if he wants to be immune. He wasn't a big target before, and he's still not now, but at his age, he seems most likely to be a potential med-evac. He will never again be higher than bottom 3 or so of these rankings, just for common sense purposes.

 

10. Nick Maiorano - The only thing keeping him here is the chance he could win a challenge. Last week he went toe to toe with Scot Pollard in basketball. His arrogance is still going to keep him perpetually in trouble and could be an easy merge boot. I would have put him last but...

 

11. Scot Pollard - I think Scot makes the most sense, logically. He's a big guy. Big guys have to eat more. Big guys tend to be good at challenges. Big guys are big targets... and I think if Kyle and Cydney are smart, they'll cut the fat, to reduce the target on them. If they get rid of Scot they can be important swing votes all the way to the end.

 

RANKINGS

Team Gordon - 58

Team Shirin - 60

Team Leggy - 61

Team Nick - 55

 

Literally the only person who didn't have Peter dead last was Gordon. Myself and Shirin are neck and neck for the lead, and it's too close to say there's a definitive winner at the merge. Nick needs a big week to get himself back into contention. He's 6 back of the lead, and at this stage, that's a huge amount of points to have to make up.

[legacyme3]

Wow.

Episode spoilers

Spoiler

Fuck this game sometimes. Neal was my favorite and now he's gone, without getting a vote against him. He had an idol too. He was in a great position and loses because of a bad luck infection that could have happened to anyone.

 

POWER RANKINGS #8

Spoiler

1. Julia Sokolowski - I don't fucking know. My interest in the season has severely dropped because of that bullshit, and now, I'm just going to rank based on who I dislike the least, in combination with people who are safe. On a serious note, nobody is voting out her or Michele. Both are closer to goats than real players, and they are the swing right now.

 

2. Michele Fitzgerald - Well, you may as well read the above. I don't feel like saying it twice. Still no clue who she is.

 

3. Tai Trang - Has an idol, is loved by everybody, but has a nasty cut. Could be med-evac'd because reasons. Biggest risk is he's the beauty most closely aligned with a member of the Brawn tribe, and if it comes to blows, he could be a compromise casualty..

 

4. Aubrey Bracco - She lost her best ally, and she couldn't be in a better position, honestly. She was only pitched as the target because she was the brain people would least expect. But now, with Neal gone, that's less of a concern. They will target the Brain who is most likely to actually play against them, and cause problems. That isn't her... or so they think.

 

5. Nick Maiorano - With Neal gone, he's basically the best immunity threat in the game. And he's a swing vote. Fuck him.

 

6. Scot Pollard - Of all the Brawn left in the game, he's the one most closely aligned with someone outside of Brawn. Kyle and Cydney were close, but the preview shows them fighting, and Scot will probably always stick with Tai. He's also an immunity threat.

 

7. Joe Del Campo - He's low just because of age at this point. If Neal could get med-evac'd, so can he.

 

8. Cydney Gillon - I have a hard time finding her to be a weak link, because if the previews are being truthful, she's going to go against Kyle... or maybe it's a red herring. In any case, the Brains want Kyle or Scot out. And Cydney may flip to help them do just that.

 

9. Kyle Jason - Have to put him low, just because of the potential feud. His weakness, as was pointed out, is arrogance. If there's a time to blindside Kyle, it's probably now.

 

10. Debbie Wanner - Fuck it, why not?

 

RANKINGS

Team Gordon - 64

Team Shirin - 66

Team Leggy - 63

Team Nick - 57

 

Neal's med-evac pushes me out of first. Well that fucking sucks. Nick is now 9 points behind the leader, which is basically a deathblow. He would need Shirin to fuck up her next pick royally, and choose correctly most of the rest of the way.

[legacyme3]

POWER RANKINGS #9

Spoiler

1. Michele Fitzgerald - She put herself into a good position, and is basically an invincible swing. Only way she's out is if Kyle idols her out, but he's going to target someone who would be an immediate threat to him, like Tai or Julia. Or anyone but Michele. She's basically a goat, but last week elevated her to aware goat.

 

2. Julia Sokolowski - She's more or less riding coat-tails right now. Her lack of challenge strength will keep her vulnerable, but as seen in the reward challenge, she is good at choosing the right people to help her with a task, whereas Aubrey is not. She has a good shot of hitting FTC just based on this skill alone.

 

3. Cydney Gillon - Worst thing that can happen is being idoled out, but Kyle and Tai have bigger targets, which I think is a mistake. Cydney has a legitimate chance to win this game, and has enough charisma that she might sway on the fence voters.

 

4. Aubrey Bracco - See the running theme here? I think the women have all the power, to the point where only one woman is a legitimate target next week, and it isn't Aubrey. She's shown a great amount of emotional intelligence this season, and isn't heavily allied with anyone at this juncture. Neal was her primary ally, and through him, she was allied with Joe and Debbie, but neither are attractive allies to have. Smartest thing she can do is try to distance herself from them, and play the role of a swing vote in the Brawn/Beauty battle for supremacy.

 

5. Tai Trang - Danger zone starts here. Tai probably isn't a target if he doesn't win that challenge. But by showing his mental toughness and physical fortitude to outlast such a strong competitor, he's put a huge target on his back. He has an idol, if need be, but that's the only reason I'm not putting him lower.

 

6. Scot Pollard - I think Scot is a target, but not the biggest one. As we saw last episode, Tai wrote Kyle's name down, not Scot's. Kyle has more enemies than Scot. Scot is the "henchman" who is allied directly with a member of the Beauty tribe. Kyle is the egomaniac who everyone is tired of. Scot has shown to be a good team player when the time comes for it, and may be playing this game better than any athlete to play Survivor.

 

7. Joe Del Campo - He's a med-evac possibility and the Brains are on the outs. His best chance at Survival is to stay confused and out of the game, like Keith. At this point, it's too late for him to ingrain himself in a new alliance, and his alliance isn't getting to the end. No one on the jury would vote for him to win either. He should make his case as a goat.

 

8. Kyle Jason - Last week, the cracks began to show. Cydney isn't unconditionally in an alliance with Kyle, and Kyle doesn't have as many numbers as he thinks he does. Aubrey, Joe, and Debbie would rather work with Beauty, Cydney seems willing to ditch him for her game, and many members of the Beauty tribe just tolerate him. Tai even voted for him. He has an idol, which is what keeps him safe, but he has to know when to use it. And Kyle has only shown himself to be arrogant.

 

9. Debbie Wanner - Best way to prove there is no "girl's alliance"? Vote out a girl. Best way to vote out a girl without damaging an alliance? Vote out the girl on the outs. Debbie annoys everyone, and has lasted far longer than she should have. She checks every box, and remains the best option to vote out.

 

RANKINGS

Team Gordon - 70

Team Shirin - 73

Team Leggy - 68

Team Nick - 64

 

I was the low man on Nick, somehow. I need to gain points this week, or you may as well call me out, this time.