I'm super excited for this season. I voted pretty much every day, and most of the people I voted for (but not Shane :() got in.
Below, I'll list who made the cut, and my initial projection of how they'll do, just for funzies.
Male
Andrew Savage - Savage was one of the first players I got to watch play the game (I started with Pearl Islands). Savage unfortunately, got screwed by the Outcasts Twist, and was unfortunate to play with bigger TV personalities (Rupert/Sandra/Jonny Fairplay). The fact it's taken this long to get him a Second Chance is ridiculous. I think he could do well, but he's getting up there in age (51), and I don't think he's likable enough to win at the end. If he makes it to the merge, he might be dragged through the game until Final 6. But he's also one of my threats to get out early. I could see him falling out at 16 just as easily as I could see him making it to the Final 6.
Jeff Varner - He's basically the one guy to get on this season that I didn't vote for once. He, like Savage, got screwed over by a rule, except he has a more legitimate gripe. The tiebreaker rule was the dumbest thing ever, and he may have remained in the game if not for it. I can't say I expect him to get very far, and I wouldn't be surprised if he made the merge, depending on how the tribes are divided. He seems likable enough, and won't be dead weight in the tribal challenges, but I think he (like many of the early day players) are going to find Surivor has passed them by, and be eaten up by the nuances of how strategy has evolved. I don't know when the merge specifically is going to take place, so I'll just say he finishes somewhere in the middle.
Jeremy Collins - I voted for him once or so, but I didn't want to see him on this season. He whined like a baby throughout all of San Juan Del Sur, and for all his talk, he really wasn't that great of a strategist. Further, once he got out, he didn't learn to remove himself from the game. It's that sort of bitter passion that is both great for TV, but awful TV. His cast photo (taken before they left) even showed him putting on an angry face (while most everyone, except Kelly Wiglesworth) looked fucking excited. I hope he's out early, and honestly, I think there's a good chance he will be. Players are going to grow tired of him quickly, and his strategy talks. You have to play strategy to win the game, but he's going to try to be a chess master from the first move, which works in chess, but not Survivor. I don't think he makes the merge, and even if he does, I think he'll be one of the first to go then.
Joe Anglim - I'm torn on how to place Joe, because he's a challenge beast (which will be the hardest people to place, due to how intelligent players are). He should make it through the Tribal Section of the game (like Worlds Apart), but fall victim at the merge. He's not a particularly skilled strategist, and while winning challenges might keep him safe at first, you can't reliably win every challenge. It's just not possible. I'd say look for him to be one of the first boots at the merge, especially if he loses the first immunity challenge. All of these players are fans. They all know what a beast Joe is if he can get on a challenge run.
Keith Nale - I love Keith, but I am pretty sure he doesn't do better than how he did in SJDS. I had hopes he would get on, because he's a character, and surprisingly good with challenges, but in a season loaded with guys who are good with challenges, he's going to find it rather hard to win immunity, should he make it to the individual stage. It's hard to place him, because the first time around, he didn't really have a strategy. He was just brought along for the ride by his son, Wes. It was only really once Wes was voted out that he started to play the game. He's going to be someone to watch, for better or worse. It'll be interesting to see if he adopts a strategy, without having to worry about a loved one. I'd say he'll make it to Final 6, potentially, but be voted out for being too likable.
Spencer Bledsoe - Oh Spencer. I don't want to have to write this, because Spencer is pretty much my favorite player since I started watching again, and he's a large part of why I still watch. I voted for him every day, even though I didn't need to (because everyone in America voted for him). Unfortunately, his popularity is going to be used against him. I think he used most of his bag of tricks in Cagayan, and he had a very high finish in a very tough season with a lot of good players. But this isn't a group of first timers. This is a group of veterans who all know how the game is played. Many will be wary of getting into an alliance with him, and while he's not on Joe's level in challenges, he has the ability to go on an impressive run. The one thing that will be on his side, potentially, is having less useless people on a tribe with him. In Cagayan, he was dragged down by some of the worst physical performers ever. While he could be stuck with a few weaker people, odds are he'll have people to work with. I said I didn't want to write this, and this is why. If his tribe loses early, I could see them getting rid of him (perhaps even first). But because I'm an optimist, I think he makes it to the merge, and finishes top 8.
Stephen Fishbach - He's a true student of the game, and his video makes that very clear. There are Shirin level super fans who know everything, and there are Stephen Fishbachs who write about everything, talk about everything, and are good about when to turn it on and off. He's likable, he's goofy, and he's not weak. He's going to fly under the radar, I think, and he's social enough that everybody has connections to him. Some might see that as a weakness, but I think a lot of players will try (and fail) to exploit that, rather than get rid of it. I am going to go as far as saying that I think he has the best chance to outright win the game, based on what we know.
Terry Deitz - He's a former (and miraculous) challenge beast, but I don't think we'll be seeing more of that. He's 55 now, this is a season full of athletic men and women, and he's not the most likable person in the game, or even perhaps top half. He made it to the end in Panama, but didn't grab votes. He got one, but you can't win with one vote at the end. He's either going home early or taken to the end as a goat. For the sake of balance, I'm just going to assume the former. If he doesn't find connections, and his tribe loses, they won't feel bad about getting rid of someone they aren't allied with.
Vytas Baskauskas - Truthfully, I don't like Vytas. He's arrogant, conceited, and has a massive chip on his shoulder. He has a smugness to him that I don't think has gone away since the last time he competed. He says he wants to be more than "Aras's brother", which leads me to believe he doesn't have the mindset to win the game. However, it's also those types of people, who tend to fly under the radar, get a meh edit, and make it further than anyone really expects. He's not quite goat status, but he's also not a legitimate threat to win, based off interviews, and his last time playing the game. That said, I think he'll get to the merge, and make it far in the game, potentially Final 6 level.
Woo Hwang - I don't think he's going to get as much a chance to shine as he did in Cagayan. He has his uses, but in a season with so many athletic people, he's just not going to be able to go on a challenge run unless he's seriously been working out. I also don't believe he's changed at all, and won't win at the end, especially if he gets to choose who he brings with him to the end (knowing him, he'd find a way to bring Stephen and another likable person to the end). I don't think he even makes it to the merge honestly, especially if he keeps being a "weasel".
Females
Abi-Maria Gomes - I didn't watch her season, but her interviews give me reason to be excited about her in this season. There's a nice mix of "villains" in the mix, so she might not be as targeted as I thought she would be when I first voted for her. She still won't be beloved, likely, but there's no reason to think she doesn't have the tools to get far in the game. In Phillipines, she allegedly tore her ACL in the first challenge (and even won an immunity challenge despite that later in the season), which leads me to believe she could be a bigger challenge threat than most expect. If she gets to the merge (which is possible), she could get all the way to the end, simply for her reputation of being "unlikable" and a "bully". My best guess is she'll get third. She won't be dragged (because she's not shit in challenges) but nobody probably votes for her at the end unless she tones down the bad guy act.
Ciera Eastin - I'm taking my lack of knowledge about her as a good thing. I didn't vote for her, because frankly, I had no idea who she was, other than that she voted out her mom. Her ability to vote out her mom shows she has the ability to persist in the game, doing what it takes to win, and she could be a stealth candidate to win the game, especially if people know as little about her as I do. That said, I think she's out early in the merge. She flipped on the majority alliance in her own season. Not sure they'll give her a chance to do it again this time.
Kass McQuillen - I could see her out first, or I could see her being dragged to the end as a goat. She is thoroughly unilkable, a villain, and it's common knowledge that if she was at the end with Woo instead of Tony, that Woo wouldn't even be on this season (because he'd have won). She's smart, too. And smarts can be dangerous in Survivor. She played chaotically in Cagayan, and it works for her. I'd get rid of her early, because if she gets to the merge, she's going to ruin countless plans, which will make for great TV, but probably lead to me ripping my hair out. Out pre-merge seems most likely.
Kelley Wentworth - I think she's going to be the most surprising player this season. Her profile seems to match up rather well with Amber Brkich, another player who came out of nowhere (and won her all star season!). And given how little the edit focused on her in SJDS, I don't think the players know much about her either. That's a dangerous weapon that Kelley may be smart enough to exploit. I'll be interested to see how she performs, especially if she actually makes it to the merge. I'm going to be optimistic, and say she makes it to the end (but finishes 2nd, I don't think she's likable enough to win at the end, but maybe she is).
Kelly Wiglesworth - I want to be wrong on her, but if anyone is going to be a "quitter" this season, I think it could be her (or Kimmi). During the cast photos, she didn't seem all that interested, and a little out of it. Maybe part of it is that it's been 15 years since she played, and she was surprised people wanted to see her again, maybe it was that she legitimately doesn't know the people, but no player has as uphill a battle as Kelly, who was in the first season ever. The game has evolved a ton, and I can't imagine she's as privy to the strategy as the more recent players are. You can study all you want, but unless you are on that island, you won't know just what strategy means. I think if she sticks with it, and doesn't quit, that she'll either be a pre-merge boot, or make it to Final 6ish as a swing voter (ala Jon/Jaclyn in SJDS)
Kimmi Kappenberg - I honestly don't know a ton about her, and I didn't vote for her. We don't know a ton about her, because she's known primarily for fighting over chickens, and was a pre-merge boot in an early season. I don't really know where to place her, but if her personality is as over the top as I've been led to believe, she's going to be an early boot.
Monica Padilla - You can consider her another one of my stealth picks. She's one of the youngest women (nay, people) in this season, looks to be in good physical shape. She showed an ability to be very cunning, but went up against Russell Hantz, which... isn't the greatest of strategies. Luckily for her, there's no Russell Hantz this season, and she's probably learned bluffing isn't going to get her to the end. I could see her anywhere from 4th-12th, depending on who she allies with, or who she tries to piss off.
Peih-Gee Law - One of my favorite women to be voted onto this season. She performs well in challenges, when she's not trying to throw them away and did a good job of staying out of trouble until late in the game. She was the last person from her tribe eliminated in China, and just ran into the numbers game, and got trapped. Not much more she could have done. This time, if she makes the merge, I expect her to keep her options open, and dynamic, and see her as a stealth Final 6ish threat.
Shirin Oskooi - I think she's going to get out early this time. She admitted during the Survivor WA finale that she's already made her first million. That probably didn't win her any favors. Coupled with her eccentric behavior that will wear thin in the hot Cambodia days, I could see her being one of the first five out. And it's a shame, because she got a raw deal to have to play through the misogyny fueled WA.
Tasha Fox - Probably the hardest recent woman to place. During her season, she was also a challenge beast, and in a season full of them, people are not going to be shy about getting rid of them. Her status in the game will be entirely dependent on her social game (which, if Cagayan is an indication) is fairly strong. I think she makes the merge, but falls out shortly after.
My early predictions about standing (and how big the merge will be)
20. Shirin Oskooi
19. Kimmi Kappenberg
18. Terry Deitz
17. Kass McQuillen
16. Kelly Wiglesworth
15. Jeremy Collins
14. Woo Hwang
MERGE
13. Jeff Varner
12. Joe Anglim
11. Tasha Fox
10. Andrew Savage
9. Ciera Eastin
8. Spencer Bledsoe
7. Vytas Baskauskas
6. Keith Nale
5. Monica Padilla
4. Peih-Gee Law
3. Abi-Maria Gomes
2. Kelley Wentworth
1. Stephen Fishbach
Looking over that, yeah, I'm satisfied with these way too early predictions, based on absolutely nothing. Once we get more information, and the season draws closer, and we get an idea of how the tribes are balanced (4 tribes of 5, 2 tribes of 10, and who is with who?)
Of course, there could be a twist that fucks everything, so who knows. This is fun to think about anyways. If anyone else has a prediction, I'd like to hear it.