1. Brad Culpepper - He had a great premiere, and that's why he's ranked #1 for next week. You might be asking, "well what did he do? I forgot he was on this season", and that my friend, is the point. He avoided ruffling any feathers. Instead, Tai and Cirie are the main targets on Nuku (although it's worth noting the preview teased a swap or expansion), and he's a physical player that tribes aren't likely going to be willing to lose. Brad is in a very good position.
2. Sarah Lacina - I am not a big fan of hers. Thought she was crap in Cagayan, and have no idea why she was asked back. But she managed to make herself into a player in one episode by saying she's going to play this game like a criminal instead of a cop. She needs to play this game with less honesty if she wants to get farther.
3. Michaela Bradshaw - She scared me a bit in the first hour of the episode with her mini explosion, but judging from how it was a unanimous 9-1 vote in her favor (sending Ciera home), I'm going to sweep that little spat under the rug. She's a physical presence, and with a tribe swap/expansion, she has a chance to really shine. I don't have any solid evidence that makes me believe she's going further, but she's making a concerted effort to change, which is why she's around, despite being an unknown, and Tony isn't, despite being a great player. Also, credit to her for voting Tony. Especially with the swap/expansion coming up. She took out the threat before the threat could take her out.
4. Troyzan Robertson - Much like Brad, he's got himself in a nice position, the biggest difference is he's been called out by Tony (who isn't in the game anymore), so everyone knows he and Sandra are open to 4 AM conversations with each other. He's here to play, but he's going to need to lay low a bit. He did his move, now he needs to get to the merge and let the players kill each other.
5. Sierra Dawn Thomas - Fairly certain she was invisible. I don't really have any reason to drop her lower than 5th, so I'm not going to do it. She's on the winning tribe, so it's not like we're going to be getting much in the way of content anyways. Additionally, with a swap, she's not the weakest woman, or the biggest threat, so she's likely safe.
6. Andrea Boehlke - Read above, more or less. She said a couple things. But she was largely invisible and isn't the weakest woman, or really close to it. She could be a real threat to go deep in this season.
7. Aubry Bracco - She made a calculated play that proves how good she is at reading situations. She (along with Caleb, for whatever reason, I'd like to hear his) voted out her alliance-mate, Tony, instead of chasing a potentially bigger threat in Sandra, when it's entirely possible they could have had the numbers. But rather than take that risky play, she plays it safe, and STILL manages to get out a big threat. Some times, the best moves are the ones you don't make. Sandra is never going to win an immunity challenge. There will be a chance to get her out. There might not have been a better one to take out Tony, and avoid making waves.
8. Zeke Smith - He's got options. He can either go with the guys and target Cirie (who he's in love with but admittedly very wary of), or go with Cirie, and take out a threat like Ozzy. In either case, it's not his name being thrown around, so he has very little to fear from anyone in Nuku, post-swap, everyone wants to work with him, and adding more people to the mix is only going to exacerbate that.
9. Debbie Wanner - Say what you want, but she has excellent reads if her read on Cirie is any indication in what type of game she'll play this time. She detected Cirie's BS from a mile away, and is saying the right things to avoid making herself the target. This will serve her well as long as she can avoid being a liability in challenges.
10. Hali Ford - We got to see a lot of her cute face on screen this week, but it was mostly as someone who was smiling and nodding. In a way, that's all she needs to do. She did make some statements that make me think she can be the winner of this season, but also a statement that makes me think she could be sunk by some loose lips.
11. Tai Trang - Here's where target territory well and truly begins. Tai made some errors in communication, which could make him a target for both Ozzy and Cirie, and he's also been pissing off JT by feeding all their food to the chickens. Despite all that, he's very clearly an early choice for the "goat" of the game, so he could go very very far, even if he plays poorly.
12. Ozzy Lusth - I could see Ozzy going, especially in a swap, if he gets swapped with Cirie and a couple of other players who want physical threats out of the game. Ozzy is so ridiculously talented in the water, that you have to get rid of him as an equalizer. His prospects are still pretty good, but he could be very easily swap-fucked, thanks to Tai's loose lips.
13. Malcolm Freberg - Unlike Ozzy, JT, etc, he's not a true challenge beast. He's strong in challenges, certainly, and he caught fire in that second immunity challenge and almost singlehandedly kept Tony safe for all of us viewers at home. But this also makes him a bigger target, especially now that Tony's gone. Vital that he recover with whoever his new tribe is, and try to play a better social game. Right now, it feels he's lacking there.
14. Cirie Fields - It's hard to tell what her prospects are, since she's never lost a challenge yet. But she's talking to everyone, and seemingly has a few hooks in. She could still be gone, with a bad swap, but I'm (unfortunately) thinking she gets closer to the merge.
15. JT Thomas - I might just be catching Tony's paranoia, but I've got this big fear whenever a castaway is exhibited so heavily in the preview. He seems to go full on crazy, and he's looking to change the game up. We saw Tony's attempt fail dramatically, and the same with Ciera. I think early on, people will want to get rid of players like that, so JT is in deep trouble, early, unfortunately.
16. Jeff Varner - Kind of amazed after his unwillingness to get in the water in the IC that he didn't get brought up as a target for being a weak link. Surely no one would have objected, thinking Varner was crucial to the team. I think he's infinitely more likely to go home next week as a result of stuff like that. He needs to put his foot on the gas, and play the game, or it is going to leave him behind.
17. Sandra Diaz-Twine - I just get the feeling that a lot of the players in the game are more than willing to write her name down, and with the other "winner" target gone in Tony, she has fewer big targets around. With how bad she is in challenges, I think it would have been better for her to keep Tony around, and try to work with Tony in taking down a Varner or so. She's not long for this game, I think. Plus, she took out Tony basically so I'm mad at her, so this is my revenge placement.
18. Caleb Reynolds - To me, no player comes out of this week looking worse despite being a strong challenge performer. Socially, he didn't say the things he needed to, to convince people to vote his way, then he flipped and voted for Tony anyway. It was good of him to get the read of the situation, but it was terrible of him to lose Tony. He's now the biggest meat shield for most of the other players left, which puts him on the chopping block. I liked his relationship with Tony, but he's left holding the bag, having no true partner to work with. No one has to scramble next week like he does.
